Last Sunday, Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton made history in his first NFL start, passing for 422 yards in his first NFL game. Well, Newton's excellent performance got me to thinking about the best rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, and because I can, I decided to make a list of the top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks in the history of professional football. One of the things that I noticed while researching this list is that now more than ever, teams are relying on rookie quarterbacks a lot more often than they did 20 or 30 years ago. Sure, you get a few high draft picks like Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers that sit for a season or two, but in today's NFL, if a team spends a high draft pick and a whole lot of money on a quarterback, then chances are that that player is going to play. This year alone, both Newton and Cincinnatti's Andy Dalton started week one at QB, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Tennessee's Jake Locker, Minnesota's Christian Ponder, and especially Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert got quite a few starts at quarterback this year. Consider this, from 2007-2010, there were nine rookie quarterbacks that started at least half of their team's games, which is almost as much as the number of rookie QBs that accomplished the same feat in the 1990s (11) and 1980s (10). What does this have to do with anything, you ask? Well, nothing really, I just found it kind of interesting. But don't be surprised if as a result, this list skews towards the more recent quarterbacks. Anyway, here is The Canon Review's Top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks.
Honorable Mention:
Dennis Shaw, 1970, and Vince Young, 2006: Both players did win the Rookie of the Year award during their first seasons, but neither player had a season that I'd say was great. Shaw, a former Buffalo Bill, was sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 2,507. However, his TD/INT ratio wasn't too hot (10/20) and his quarterback rating was a partly 65.3. Young may have had an 8-5 record as a starter, and he did add a lot of value with his running ability (552 yards, seven TDs). However, his performance as a passer (51.5 completion percentage, 12/13 TD/INT ratio), left something to be desired.
Peyton Manning, 1998: Guess who holds the NFL rookie records for passing yards and touchdown passes by a rookie? Quite obviously, it is Peyton Manning. So why in the world would I leave Peyton off a list of the top rookie quarterbacks? Well, despite his high yardage (3,739) and touchdown (26) totals, Manning wasn't quite the Peyton Manning that we would see on the field for the next decade or so. In 1998, Manning also threw for 28 interceptions, which was a factor in the Colts going 3-13 that year. So, because of his high interception total and somewhat pedestrian QB rating (71.2), Manning just misses the cut.
10. Sam Bradford, 2010, St. Louis Rams
Coming out of Oklahoma, there were some questions about how quickly Bradford would adjust to the NFL, especially since he was recovering from a severe shoulder injury. But Bradford showed to be a quick learner, and ended up starting all 16 games for the Rams last year and nearly leading them to a division title. In his rookie season, Bradford threw for 3,512 yards and set a new rookie record for most completions in a season with 354 on his way to winning the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Bradford also became the first rookie quarterback to win consecutive Rookie of the Month awards (October and November) and set a rookie record for most consecutive passes thrown without an interception (169). All in all, a rather successful rookie season.
9. Charle Batch, 1998, Detroit Lions
Batch was the third quarterback selected in the 1998 Draft behind Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, but it was Batch that was the most effective rookie quarterback that year. In 12 starts, Batch threw for 2,178 yards, had a nearly 2-1 TD/INT ratio(11-6), and his 83.5 QB rating is the sixth highest among NFL rookies with over 200 attempts. Batch also contributed to the Lions' cause with his feet, running for 229 yards and a touchdown. While Batch may not have had the career that Peyton Manning has had, at least he can say that he had the better rookie season.
8. Greg Cook, 1969, Cincinnati Bengals
In 1969, the Bengals thought they drafted their quarterback of the future when they made Cook their first round selection. At first, Cook did nothing to make the Bengals believe otherwise, as he won his first three starts. However, an injury to Cook's shoulder knocked him out of action for a few weeks, and with Cook out, the Bengals tumbled to the basement of the AFL Western Division. Even so, it was still a successful season for Cook, as he led the AFL in passer rating (88.3) and in completion percentage (53.8) despite playing most of the season with a torn rotator cuff. Cook was the AFL Rookie of the Year, but his shoulder injury was so severe that he never could regain his previous form, and only threw two more passes after his rookie season. Today, we can only speculate about what might have been had Greg Cook stayed healthy, but there's no doubt that he had a heck of a first season.
7. Otto Graham, 1946, Cleveland Browns
Graham served in the Coast Guard after starring at Northwestern, and didn't make his debut until 1946, where he was the quarterback for the AAFC's Cleveland Browns. Graham and the Browns took the new league by storm, as the Browns went 12-2 and won the first of their four straight AAFC League Championships. For his part, Graham was quite successful, finishing second in the league in passing yards (1,886) and first in touchdowns (17). His QB rating of 112.1 would have led the league if he had enough passing attempts, and would also be the fifth highest single-season total in pro football history. Yes, it was quite a year for Graham, but he does get penalized because the level of competition he was playing against wasn't exactly the strongest.
6. Charlie Conerly, 1948, New York Giants
Conerly was an All-American player at Ole Miss and the 1947 SEC Player of the Year, so the Giants had high hopes for their new quarterback. In his first season, Conerly not only met those hopes, but exceeded them, finishing 2nd in the NFL in completions (162), passing yards (2,175), touchdown passes (22), and QB rating (84.0). Not only did Conerly excel as a passer, he was also a dangerous running threat, running for five touchdowns. Even though he played over 50 years ago, only one other rookie has more touchdown passes than Conerly's 22. Despite Conerly's excellence, the Giants went 4-8, but Conerly still had a rookie season for the ages.
5. Joe Flacco, 2008, Baltimore Ravens
Coming out of 1-AA Delaware, Flacco was picked in the first round by the Ravens in the 2008 draft. In a surprising move, the Ravens made Flacco their opening game starter, and Flacco repaid the Ravens' confidence in him by leading them to victory in his first two starts. At the end of the season, the Ravens finished with an 11-5 record, and Flacco started each game, throwing for 2,971 and 14 touchdowns. Flacco was an efficient quarterback who completed 60 percent of his passes, and he finished the season with a QB rating of 80.3. The Ravens made the playoffs that year, and Flacco made history by becoming the first rookie quarterback to win two playoff games, both of which were on the road. While Flacco wasn't spectacular in each game, he was careful with the ball (0 turnovers) and led the Ravens down the field on their game winning drive against the Tennessee Titans in the second round. Yes, Flacco's Ravens were eventually beaten by the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, but it was quite an excellent first season for Flacco.
4. Matt Ryan, 2008, Atlanta Falcons
Despite Flacco's excellent rookie season, it was Matt Ryan that would win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2008, and for good reason. The Falcons made Ryan the starter from day one, hoping that he would at least help to improve their 3-13 mark from last year. On his first pass, Ryan established himself as a player to watch, as he threw a touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins on a stunned Detroit Lions defense. From that moment on, Ryan was the man behind center in Atlanta, and he led the Falcons to a surprising 11-5 record and a spot in the postseason. Ryan also became the second rookie to throw for over 3,000 yards in a season (3,440) and put up very nice numbers in his rookie season (61.1 completion percentage, 16/11 TD/INT, 87.7 rating). Even though the Falcons lost their playoff game, Ryan made more history by completing 26 passes, a record for NFL rookies.
3. Bob Waterfield, 1945, Cleveland Rams
At
first glance, Waterfield's stats do not appear very impressive. He threw
more interceptions than touchdowns (17-14), his completion percentage
was 51.0%, and his QB rating of 72.4 doesn't look like anything to write
home about. But 1945 wasn't exactly a banner year for passing, so
Waterfield did quite well compared to his peers. He finished third in
completions (89) and in passing yards (1,609), and his 14 touchdowns
were tied for the most in the league. At the end of the season,
Waterfield was named to the NFL All-Pro team, and led his Cleveland Rams
to victory over the Washington Redskins in the NFL Championship game,
making Waterfield the last rookie quarterback to lead his team to a
title in the NFL, and is also the only rookie QB to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.
2. Dan Marino, 1983, Miami Dolphins
Marino was the sixth quarterback taken in the first round of the 1983 NFL Draft when Miami picked him with the 27th pick. While the rest of his peers were either struggling or playing in the USFL, Marino thrived in his rookie year after taking over for David Woodley early in the season. This despite the fact that Woodley had led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl the prior season. But the Dolphins not only didn't miss a beat with Marino, they added a whole new element to their team, as Marino proved to be a much more skilled quarterback. At the end of the year, Marino led the Dolphins to a 12-4 record and a division title while throwing for 2,210 yards and 20 touchdowns while only throwing six interceptions. His 96.0 rating was third best in the league, and became the first rookie quarterback to be named the starter for the Pro Bowl.
1. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Pittsburgh Steelers
The number one quarterbacks on our list started the 2004 season as a backup to Tommy Maddox. But a week two injury to Maddox forced Roethlisberger into the lineup, and Roethlisberger never left. In fact, the Steelers went 13-0 with Roethlisberger as a starter that year, and finished the season with a franchise best 15-1 record, and a large part of that was the play of their rookie quarterback. Roethlisberger set rookie records for completion percentage (66.4) and quarterback rating (98.1), and finished in the NFL in both categories. He also passed for 2,621 and 17 touchdowns, while only throwing 11 interceptions. Not only that, but Roethlisberger proved to be a clutch performer, leading his team on five game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger and his Steelers went all the way to the AFC Championship Game before falling to the Patriots. Nevertheless, it was a great year for Roethlisberger, who was named to the Pro Bowl and also won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Well, thanks for reading The Canon Review's list of the Top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks of All Time. Whether you agree or disagree, feel free to express your opinion on this article by leaving a comment on the blog. Also, if you have any requests for future posts, then send those along to me via e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Your Canon Review 2011 NFL Preview
Hey, remember two or three months ago where we all wondered whether there would be an NFL season? Well, the players and owners agreed on a new labor deal just in the nick of time, and football season is back in full force. After one of the more chaotic seasons in recent memory, it remains to be seen just how things will play out. The Philadelphia Eagles made a huge splash in free agency, but can all those new players gel in time to excel in the regular season? Will the Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions, or will they take a step back? Will the Colts' Peyton Manning be healthy enough to play, or is this a lost season for the Colts? What crazy statement will Rex Ryan make next? All this and more will be discovered in the next few months. In the meantime, here's one man's opinion on what will go down during the 2011 NFL season.
AFC East (*=Wild Card)
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets*
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
This is really going to be a two team division. The Patriots went 14-2 last season before falling to the Jets in the playoffs. In the offseason, they picked up Chad Ochocinco to provide a downfield threat on offense and a plethora of veteran defensive linemen, including former All-Pro Albert Haynesworth. If the veterans work out, then the Patriots could be the best team in the NFL, and if not, then Tom Brady and company are still good enough to win at least 11 games. Last year, I predicted the Jets to falter, and I was wrong. So I'm not making the same mistake twice. Yes, QB Mark Sanchez can be inconsistent, but the Jets still have a strong running game and a top-notch defense led by CB Darelle Revis and MLB David Harris. So, expect the Jets to make the playoffs as a wild card once again. The Dolphins are a middle of the road team with a few stars such as OT Jake Long and OLB Cameron Wake. But they have an inconsistent QB in Chad Henne and not enough playmakers on either side of the ball to finish with more than an 8-8 record. I read a stat the other day that of the 24 players expected to start for the Bills (including kicker and punter), 22 were on the team last year, the highest total in the league. That's great, but then again these same players were on a 4-12 team last year, so I don't see a lot of improvement in Buffalo this year.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens*
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers went all the way to the big game last year, and with many of their key players back this year, they should be a contender once again. Sure, defenders such as NT Casey Hampton and MLB James Farrior may be a little over the hill, but any defense with OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and S Troy Polamalu should not be taken lightly. Much like the Steelers, the Ravens also feature a top-notch defense with a few players (MLB Ray Lewis for one) that are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Both teams should fight for the division lead all year, but the Steelers' superior offense should provide the difference. The Browns have a new head coach in Pat Shumar, and QB Colt McCoy showed promise last year, but they still seem a year away from contention. The Bengals are a hot mess, and unless rookies WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton can impress quickly, it's going to be a long season in Cincinnati.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Houston Texans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The injury of Colts QB Peyton Manning has made this division a wide open race. While the Texans have become the popular pick due to their explosive offense and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, I'm picking the Titans here. For one, they were much better than their 6-10 record last season, and they have stability at the quarterback position with the signing of Matt Hasselbeck. Add that to superstar running back Chris Johnson and a solid defense, and I think the Titans will surprise some folks and take the AFC South. The Texans have a great offense with QB Matt Schuab, RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson, but the question in Houston is can Phillips improve last year's horrendous defense. At least he has DE/OLB Mario Williams and LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans to build around. The Colts could still contend, but that will all depend on how quickly Peyton Manning comes back. If he misses six games, the Colts are probably finished. Jaguars' coach Jack Del Rio is in danger if the team doesn't make the playoffs, and this bunch doesn't have the look of a playoff team, especially with the curious decision to start Luke McCown at quarterback. At least Jaguars fans can enjoy the running of Maurice Jones-Drew, but they won't enjoy many victories.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
If it weren't for a historically bad season on kick coverage, the Chargers would have ran away with the division last year. So no team is probably happier that kickoffs have moved up five yards this season, making things a lot easier for the coverage. The Chargers are clearly the most talented team in the division, providing that TE Antonio Gates is healthy, and only their self-destructive tendencies can keep them from winning the AFC West this year. The Broncos weren't very good last year, but Josh McDaniels is gone and John Fox is in. Plus, they should have an improved pass rush with the return of OLB Elvis Dumervil and the selection of OLB Von Miller. With QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Lloyd leading a strong passing attack, the Broncos will sneak up on some teams this year. The Chiefs used a weak schedule and some luck to win the AFC West last year, and I don't see it happening again this year. Sure, they have some stars in RB Jamaal Charles, OLB Tamba Hali, and WR Dwayne Bowe, but everything broke right for the Chiefs last year, and there is no way they'll get that lucky again this year. The Raiders took a step forward last year, then took a step backwards in the offseason by firing coach Tom Cable and losing key players such as CB Nmandi Asomugha. Even with RB Darren McFadden, the Raiders are more likely to stumble back to the basement of the division then take a leap to the lead.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
With the signings of CB Nmandi Asomugha, RB Ronnie Brown, DE Jason Babin and others, the dunderheads at ESPN have begun to refer to the Eagles as a 'Dream Team'. Well, I'm not sure about that, but they are good enough to repeat as division champs, even if QB Michael Vick takes a slight step back from his career year last season. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator in Rob Ryan, and the best pass rusher in the league in OLB DeMarcus Ware. Their defense should be better, but can Felix Jones be the workhorse at running back the Cowboys need? Either way, I see them falling just short of the postseason. The Giants are already banged up on defense, especially in the secondary. Considering that pass defense was already a problem for the Giants, this does not bode well. Despite QB Eli Manning's best efforts, the Giants are not going to see the postseason this year, and we may see the end of Tom Coughlin in New York. The Redskins are starting the season with Rex Grossman as their quarterback, which is all you really need to know about their chances this year.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings*
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears
This is probably the only division in which all four teams have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. Even though the Packers suffered a ton of injuries last year, from RB Ryan Grant to TE Jermichel Finley to now departed MLB Nick Barnett, the Packers won the Super Bowl anyway, thanks in large part to QB Aaron Rodgers' emergence as a superstar. They've definitely got the talent to repeat as champs, but will they? I admit, I'm a little higher on the Vikings than others. But this year they've got a coach the team actually likes in Leslie Fraizer, plus talented players such as RB Adrian Peterson, DT Kevin Williams, and OLB Chad Greenway all return. Not to mention that QB Donovan McNabb is now in town, and even though last year was his worst year as a pro, it was still much better than the year Brett Favre had. McNabb should be fine in Minnesota, and the Vikings will make the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Lions are getting a lot of hype this season, and with WR Calvin Johnson and DT Ndamukong Suh, it's easy to see why. But let's hold off on the hype just a little until we can see what QB Matthew Stafford can do in a full season and until their poor secondary can improve. The Bears are getting a little over the hill on defense, and their offensive line is questionable at best. Yes, this team won the division last year, but much like the Chiefs, every break went the Bears way last year. So unless QB Jay Cutler becomes the next Aaron Rodgers, then don't expect to see the Bears in the postseason.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
The Saints had two problems last year, running the ball and stopping the run. Well, in the offseason, the Saints went out and got RBs Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles to run the ball, and DTs Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin to stop the run. With QB Drew Brees back to propel the Saints high powered offense, and a defense that is both stronger and faster than last season's model, the Saints are the best team in the division, and maybe the league. The Falcons won 13 games last season, and have WR Julio Jones join a high powered offense that includes QB Matt Ryan, WR Roddy White, and RB Michael Turner. I wish they had done more to improve their secondary, but the Falcons should make the playoffs for two consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. The Bucs used an easy schedule and the emergence of QB Josh Freeman to propel themselves to a 10-6 record. With a tougher schedule, they might take a step back this year, but if the Falcons or Saints slip up, then the Bucs are more than capable of taking advantage. The Panthers have a new coach in Ron Rivera and a new quarterback in Cam Newton. Plus, they should be healthier this season. They'll win more than 2 games this year, but probably not much more than five.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Seattle Seahawks
Maybe I'm crazy or just plain dumb, but I like the 49ers chances this year. Yes, QB Alex Smith hasn't proven to be anything but a bust thus far, but now he finally has an offensive minded head coach in Jim Harbaugh and with the addition of WR Braylon Edwards to a group that includes WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, Smith finally has a group of receivers that are at least adequate, provided that everyone is healthy. Not to mention that he still has RB Frank Gore behind him, and a solid defense led by MLB Patrick Willis and DE Justin Smith. Perhaps most importantly, this division isn't that good, and they have a much easier schedule than the Rams, so for those reasons, I'm picking the 49ers as division champs. The Rams aren't going to go quietly though, and with an improved set of receivers led by WR Mike Sims-Walker, QB Sam Bradford could emerge as the next great quarterback this season. The Cardinals have a new quarterback in Kevin Kolb, and even if he isn't the long term answer, he has to better than the group that was there last year. Their defense is full of question marks, however, even with the solid play of DT Darnell Dockett and SS Adrian Wilson. The Seahawks won the division last year, and I guess they could do it again. But is anybody really sold on Tavaris Jackson being the answer at QB? This team was lucky to win seven games last season, and if anything they've only gotten worse. I could be wrong, but I don't see Seattle winning more than five games this season, and Jackson will lose his starting job by week 9 to Charlie Whitehurst.
Super Bowl Picks:
In the AFC, the Patriots and Jets will fight it out all season for conference supremacy, and that fight will commence at the AFC Championship Game. For the third straight season, the Jets will reach the Championship Game, and for the third straight season, they will fall short, as the New England Patriots will return to the Super Bowl. In the NFC, despite challenges from Philadelphia and Atlanta, the Saints and Packers will emerge as the two top teams in the conference. Interestingly enough, they play tonight in the first game of the season, and will also play in the last game of the NFC season. Unlike tonight's game, this one will take place at the Superdome, and the Saints will win a close one. As for the big game, the Patriots and Saints will light up to scoreboard in Indianapolis, but at the end, the New Orleans Saints will win their second Super Bowl in three years.
NFL MVP:
1. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
3. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
Dark Horse: Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
With the possible exception of Peyton Manning, nobody is more important to their team than Drew Brees is to the Saints. This year, he proves that and wins his first MVP. Rodgers established himself as an elite quarterback last year, and will do nothing to disprove that status this year, putting up excellent numbers and leading the Pack to many victories. Tom Brady was last year's MVP, and if WR Chad Ochocinco has anything left, then Brady will have another top-notch receiver to throw to, which is the last thing opposing defenses want to hear. If the Titans are going anywhere this season, then Chris Johnson will have to play up to his new contract and carry them. If the past three years are any indication, he's more than capable of doing so, and another 2,000 yard season is not of reach for Johnson.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year:
1. Clay Matthews, LB, Packers
2. Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers
3. Ed Reed, S, Ravens
Dark Horse: Cameron Wake, LB, Dolphins
Matthews may have been the best defensive player in the league last year, and he played much of the season hurt, so imagine what chaos he will cause opposing offenses when he's healthy. Expect a huge year from Matthews. Willis has been an elite defender for a number of years now, and if the 49ers perform as I expect they will, Willis will get a lot of recognition nationwide, fitting for the best MLB in the NFL. Reed played 10 games last year, and still picked off eight passes. As long as he's on the field, Reed's going to make a ton of big plays for the Ravens. Wake had 14 sacks last year for the Dolphins, and there's no reason to believe he won't at least repeat last year's performance, if not exceed it.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
2. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
3. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Dark Horse: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Even though he might share time with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, expect Ingram to emerge as the Saints' workhorse in the backfield this season. With opponents gearing up to stop the Saints' passing game, Ingram's going to face a lot of favorable defenses, and he has the talent to take advantage. I wouldn't be shocked if Ingram had over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Thomas is going to get the bulk of the Dolphins carries this year, so as long as he's healthy, he should have a shot to put up big numbers this season. The Falcons traded a whole lot of draft picks to get Jones, and they didn't select him with the intention of sitting on the bench for a season. Even though rookie WRs tend to struggle, Jones could be one of the exceptions to the rule, especially since coverages will be shaded more to Roddy White. Newton's going to be the starter from the get go in Carolina, whether he's ready or not. Yes, he has some work to do, but remember, Vince Young won the Rookie of the Year Award, and Newton is more developed at this stage than Young was. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not hard to see Newton throwing for 3,000 yards and running for 500 more.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Von Miller, LB, Broncos
2. Marcell Dareus, DE, Bills
3. Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals
Dark Horse: Robert Quinn, DE, Rams
Like nearly everyone else, I expect big things from Miller in his rookie season. He has the talent to be the next DeMarcus Ware or Derrick Thomas and be and unblockable force. If he doesn't get 10 sacks this season, I'll be surprised. Dareus is just what the doctor ordered for the Bills, a run stopping force on their D-Line. He'll be someone opposing lineman worry about from the word go. Peterson will be tested early and often as the Cardinals' new cornerback, but make no mistake about it, he has the chance to be a top notch player. In a rookie crop full of quality defensive linemen, Quinn may be the most athletically gifted of the bunch. If he can adjust to the speed of the NFL game, then Quinn has an outside chance at snatching this award.
Well, thanks for reading The Canon Review 2011 NFL Preview. Hopefully, I'll be more accurate this year than my college preview looks to be (Darn Oregon Ducks). Anyway, if you have a comment about this topic or the blog, than share by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
AFC East (*=Wild Card)
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets*
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
This is really going to be a two team division. The Patriots went 14-2 last season before falling to the Jets in the playoffs. In the offseason, they picked up Chad Ochocinco to provide a downfield threat on offense and a plethora of veteran defensive linemen, including former All-Pro Albert Haynesworth. If the veterans work out, then the Patriots could be the best team in the NFL, and if not, then Tom Brady and company are still good enough to win at least 11 games. Last year, I predicted the Jets to falter, and I was wrong. So I'm not making the same mistake twice. Yes, QB Mark Sanchez can be inconsistent, but the Jets still have a strong running game and a top-notch defense led by CB Darelle Revis and MLB David Harris. So, expect the Jets to make the playoffs as a wild card once again. The Dolphins are a middle of the road team with a few stars such as OT Jake Long and OLB Cameron Wake. But they have an inconsistent QB in Chad Henne and not enough playmakers on either side of the ball to finish with more than an 8-8 record. I read a stat the other day that of the 24 players expected to start for the Bills (including kicker and punter), 22 were on the team last year, the highest total in the league. That's great, but then again these same players were on a 4-12 team last year, so I don't see a lot of improvement in Buffalo this year.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens*
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers went all the way to the big game last year, and with many of their key players back this year, they should be a contender once again. Sure, defenders such as NT Casey Hampton and MLB James Farrior may be a little over the hill, but any defense with OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and S Troy Polamalu should not be taken lightly. Much like the Steelers, the Ravens also feature a top-notch defense with a few players (MLB Ray Lewis for one) that are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Both teams should fight for the division lead all year, but the Steelers' superior offense should provide the difference. The Browns have a new head coach in Pat Shumar, and QB Colt McCoy showed promise last year, but they still seem a year away from contention. The Bengals are a hot mess, and unless rookies WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton can impress quickly, it's going to be a long season in Cincinnati.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Houston Texans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The injury of Colts QB Peyton Manning has made this division a wide open race. While the Texans have become the popular pick due to their explosive offense and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, I'm picking the Titans here. For one, they were much better than their 6-10 record last season, and they have stability at the quarterback position with the signing of Matt Hasselbeck. Add that to superstar running back Chris Johnson and a solid defense, and I think the Titans will surprise some folks and take the AFC South. The Texans have a great offense with QB Matt Schuab, RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson, but the question in Houston is can Phillips improve last year's horrendous defense. At least he has DE/OLB Mario Williams and LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans to build around. The Colts could still contend, but that will all depend on how quickly Peyton Manning comes back. If he misses six games, the Colts are probably finished. Jaguars' coach Jack Del Rio is in danger if the team doesn't make the playoffs, and this bunch doesn't have the look of a playoff team, especially with the curious decision to start Luke McCown at quarterback. At least Jaguars fans can enjoy the running of Maurice Jones-Drew, but they won't enjoy many victories.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
If it weren't for a historically bad season on kick coverage, the Chargers would have ran away with the division last year. So no team is probably happier that kickoffs have moved up five yards this season, making things a lot easier for the coverage. The Chargers are clearly the most talented team in the division, providing that TE Antonio Gates is healthy, and only their self-destructive tendencies can keep them from winning the AFC West this year. The Broncos weren't very good last year, but Josh McDaniels is gone and John Fox is in. Plus, they should have an improved pass rush with the return of OLB Elvis Dumervil and the selection of OLB Von Miller. With QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Lloyd leading a strong passing attack, the Broncos will sneak up on some teams this year. The Chiefs used a weak schedule and some luck to win the AFC West last year, and I don't see it happening again this year. Sure, they have some stars in RB Jamaal Charles, OLB Tamba Hali, and WR Dwayne Bowe, but everything broke right for the Chiefs last year, and there is no way they'll get that lucky again this year. The Raiders took a step forward last year, then took a step backwards in the offseason by firing coach Tom Cable and losing key players such as CB Nmandi Asomugha. Even with RB Darren McFadden, the Raiders are more likely to stumble back to the basement of the division then take a leap to the lead.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
With the signings of CB Nmandi Asomugha, RB Ronnie Brown, DE Jason Babin and others, the dunderheads at ESPN have begun to refer to the Eagles as a 'Dream Team'. Well, I'm not sure about that, but they are good enough to repeat as division champs, even if QB Michael Vick takes a slight step back from his career year last season. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator in Rob Ryan, and the best pass rusher in the league in OLB DeMarcus Ware. Their defense should be better, but can Felix Jones be the workhorse at running back the Cowboys need? Either way, I see them falling just short of the postseason. The Giants are already banged up on defense, especially in the secondary. Considering that pass defense was already a problem for the Giants, this does not bode well. Despite QB Eli Manning's best efforts, the Giants are not going to see the postseason this year, and we may see the end of Tom Coughlin in New York. The Redskins are starting the season with Rex Grossman as their quarterback, which is all you really need to know about their chances this year.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings*
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears
This is probably the only division in which all four teams have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. Even though the Packers suffered a ton of injuries last year, from RB Ryan Grant to TE Jermichel Finley to now departed MLB Nick Barnett, the Packers won the Super Bowl anyway, thanks in large part to QB Aaron Rodgers' emergence as a superstar. They've definitely got the talent to repeat as champs, but will they? I admit, I'm a little higher on the Vikings than others. But this year they've got a coach the team actually likes in Leslie Fraizer, plus talented players such as RB Adrian Peterson, DT Kevin Williams, and OLB Chad Greenway all return. Not to mention that QB Donovan McNabb is now in town, and even though last year was his worst year as a pro, it was still much better than the year Brett Favre had. McNabb should be fine in Minnesota, and the Vikings will make the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Lions are getting a lot of hype this season, and with WR Calvin Johnson and DT Ndamukong Suh, it's easy to see why. But let's hold off on the hype just a little until we can see what QB Matthew Stafford can do in a full season and until their poor secondary can improve. The Bears are getting a little over the hill on defense, and their offensive line is questionable at best. Yes, this team won the division last year, but much like the Chiefs, every break went the Bears way last year. So unless QB Jay Cutler becomes the next Aaron Rodgers, then don't expect to see the Bears in the postseason.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
The Saints had two problems last year, running the ball and stopping the run. Well, in the offseason, the Saints went out and got RBs Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles to run the ball, and DTs Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin to stop the run. With QB Drew Brees back to propel the Saints high powered offense, and a defense that is both stronger and faster than last season's model, the Saints are the best team in the division, and maybe the league. The Falcons won 13 games last season, and have WR Julio Jones join a high powered offense that includes QB Matt Ryan, WR Roddy White, and RB Michael Turner. I wish they had done more to improve their secondary, but the Falcons should make the playoffs for two consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. The Bucs used an easy schedule and the emergence of QB Josh Freeman to propel themselves to a 10-6 record. With a tougher schedule, they might take a step back this year, but if the Falcons or Saints slip up, then the Bucs are more than capable of taking advantage. The Panthers have a new coach in Ron Rivera and a new quarterback in Cam Newton. Plus, they should be healthier this season. They'll win more than 2 games this year, but probably not much more than five.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Seattle Seahawks
Maybe I'm crazy or just plain dumb, but I like the 49ers chances this year. Yes, QB Alex Smith hasn't proven to be anything but a bust thus far, but now he finally has an offensive minded head coach in Jim Harbaugh and with the addition of WR Braylon Edwards to a group that includes WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, Smith finally has a group of receivers that are at least adequate, provided that everyone is healthy. Not to mention that he still has RB Frank Gore behind him, and a solid defense led by MLB Patrick Willis and DE Justin Smith. Perhaps most importantly, this division isn't that good, and they have a much easier schedule than the Rams, so for those reasons, I'm picking the 49ers as division champs. The Rams aren't going to go quietly though, and with an improved set of receivers led by WR Mike Sims-Walker, QB Sam Bradford could emerge as the next great quarterback this season. The Cardinals have a new quarterback in Kevin Kolb, and even if he isn't the long term answer, he has to better than the group that was there last year. Their defense is full of question marks, however, even with the solid play of DT Darnell Dockett and SS Adrian Wilson. The Seahawks won the division last year, and I guess they could do it again. But is anybody really sold on Tavaris Jackson being the answer at QB? This team was lucky to win seven games last season, and if anything they've only gotten worse. I could be wrong, but I don't see Seattle winning more than five games this season, and Jackson will lose his starting job by week 9 to Charlie Whitehurst.
Super Bowl Picks:
In the AFC, the Patriots and Jets will fight it out all season for conference supremacy, and that fight will commence at the AFC Championship Game. For the third straight season, the Jets will reach the Championship Game, and for the third straight season, they will fall short, as the New England Patriots will return to the Super Bowl. In the NFC, despite challenges from Philadelphia and Atlanta, the Saints and Packers will emerge as the two top teams in the conference. Interestingly enough, they play tonight in the first game of the season, and will also play in the last game of the NFC season. Unlike tonight's game, this one will take place at the Superdome, and the Saints will win a close one. As for the big game, the Patriots and Saints will light up to scoreboard in Indianapolis, but at the end, the New Orleans Saints will win their second Super Bowl in three years.
NFL MVP:
1. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
3. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
Dark Horse: Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
With the possible exception of Peyton Manning, nobody is more important to their team than Drew Brees is to the Saints. This year, he proves that and wins his first MVP. Rodgers established himself as an elite quarterback last year, and will do nothing to disprove that status this year, putting up excellent numbers and leading the Pack to many victories. Tom Brady was last year's MVP, and if WR Chad Ochocinco has anything left, then Brady will have another top-notch receiver to throw to, which is the last thing opposing defenses want to hear. If the Titans are going anywhere this season, then Chris Johnson will have to play up to his new contract and carry them. If the past three years are any indication, he's more than capable of doing so, and another 2,000 yard season is not of reach for Johnson.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year:
1. Clay Matthews, LB, Packers
2. Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers
3. Ed Reed, S, Ravens
Dark Horse: Cameron Wake, LB, Dolphins
Matthews may have been the best defensive player in the league last year, and he played much of the season hurt, so imagine what chaos he will cause opposing offenses when he's healthy. Expect a huge year from Matthews. Willis has been an elite defender for a number of years now, and if the 49ers perform as I expect they will, Willis will get a lot of recognition nationwide, fitting for the best MLB in the NFL. Reed played 10 games last year, and still picked off eight passes. As long as he's on the field, Reed's going to make a ton of big plays for the Ravens. Wake had 14 sacks last year for the Dolphins, and there's no reason to believe he won't at least repeat last year's performance, if not exceed it.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
2. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
3. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Dark Horse: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Even though he might share time with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, expect Ingram to emerge as the Saints' workhorse in the backfield this season. With opponents gearing up to stop the Saints' passing game, Ingram's going to face a lot of favorable defenses, and he has the talent to take advantage. I wouldn't be shocked if Ingram had over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Thomas is going to get the bulk of the Dolphins carries this year, so as long as he's healthy, he should have a shot to put up big numbers this season. The Falcons traded a whole lot of draft picks to get Jones, and they didn't select him with the intention of sitting on the bench for a season. Even though rookie WRs tend to struggle, Jones could be one of the exceptions to the rule, especially since coverages will be shaded more to Roddy White. Newton's going to be the starter from the get go in Carolina, whether he's ready or not. Yes, he has some work to do, but remember, Vince Young won the Rookie of the Year Award, and Newton is more developed at this stage than Young was. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not hard to see Newton throwing for 3,000 yards and running for 500 more.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Von Miller, LB, Broncos
2. Marcell Dareus, DE, Bills
3. Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals
Dark Horse: Robert Quinn, DE, Rams
Like nearly everyone else, I expect big things from Miller in his rookie season. He has the talent to be the next DeMarcus Ware or Derrick Thomas and be and unblockable force. If he doesn't get 10 sacks this season, I'll be surprised. Dareus is just what the doctor ordered for the Bills, a run stopping force on their D-Line. He'll be someone opposing lineman worry about from the word go. Peterson will be tested early and often as the Cardinals' new cornerback, but make no mistake about it, he has the chance to be a top notch player. In a rookie crop full of quality defensive linemen, Quinn may be the most athletically gifted of the bunch. If he can adjust to the speed of the NFL game, then Quinn has an outside chance at snatching this award.
Well, thanks for reading The Canon Review 2011 NFL Preview. Hopefully, I'll be more accurate this year than my college preview looks to be (Darn Oregon Ducks). Anyway, if you have a comment about this topic or the blog, than share by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers, October 10, 1993
The final game of The Canon Review Football Fix Weekend (and yes, I know it's not the weekend anymore, but due to connectivity issues this post was delayed a day) features two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing in a week 6 game from 1993 as John Elway led the Denver Broncos against Brett Favre's Green Bay Packers. The Packers got out to a quick 17-0 lead, then went into halftime leading 30-7. But John Elway and the Broncos wouldn't go away, as the Broncos got within three points before finally falling to the Pack 30-27. A few notes about this game.
- Back in 1993, Brett Favre wasn't a quarterback revered by the media for his gunslinging ways and 'playing like a kid out there'. Instead he was a talented young quarterback who had trouble handling the blitz and sometimes moved too fast for his own good. In this game, Favre was rahter inconsistent. In the first half, Favre was great, constantly finding the open man and throwing a 66 yard touchdown to tight end Jackie Harris. In the second half, Favre didn't do so well, as he threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Denver LB Mike Croel (and probably shouldn't have counted as the receiver was clearly interfered with). One pick was really bad in particular, as Favre panicked on a safety blitz and threw a wobbling duck in the air that landed in the hands of CB Le-Lo Lang that gave the ball back to the Broncos on the Green Bay 43 with just over two minutes left. I mean, as soon as Favre let go of the ball, I knew exactly what was going to happen. To be fair to Favre, he didn't have any help at all from his running game (Favre had his team's longest run with a 17 yard scamper in the first quarter), so the Broncos pretty much played the pass for most of the second half because they knew Green Bay couldn't run on them, so that may have contributed to Favre's poor second half. Also, it was refreshing to watch a game with Brett Favre in it where the announcers didn't bend over backwards trying to explain that a Favre INT was somehow the receiver's fault, as TNT announcers (yes this game was on TNT) Gary Bender and Pat Haden were fair with Favre instead of deifying him like some current announcers have done in recent seasons.
- As for the other legendary quarterback, John Elway actually set a career high for moss passes thrown in a game with 59, and most completions with 33 (although that record was later topped). It's not surprising that Elway threw so much since the Broncos trailed big early and basically spent the last three quarters in a hurry-up offense, but despite the Packers constantly playing nickel and dime packages, Elway did rather well. His favorite target during the game was WR Vance Johnson, who made his impact felt on the game with 10 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Not only that, but Johnson made two or three remarkable catches and always seemed to make the catch just when the Broncons needed another third-down conversion. Elway's legendary arm strength was on display in this one, as he threw a couple of passes that almost went through his receivers, and threw one to Johnson so fast that even though a Packer was nearly in front of him, Elway's pass somehow got through for a first down.
- The Packers came into this game 1-3 after signing the biggest free agent of all time, DE Reggie White. Before the game, the announcers stated that Reggie went to the coaching staff and told them that despite the poor start, he still felt that coming to Green Bay was the right decision. Well, good for Reggie for not panicking after his first four games of a five year contract. I mean, what did they expect him to say, that the Packers suck and he should have gone to San Francisco or Miami instead? Anyway, Reggie had a whale of a ball game here, getting three sacks and many pressures on Elway. White was lined up against Denver OT Russell Freeman all game long, and poor Russell never had a chance. When White bull-rushed, he'd go through Freeman. When White decided to go to the outside, he got by Freeman with ease. When Freeman decided to block low, White hurdled over him and still got heat on the quarterback. With less than two minutes left in the game and the Broncos just outside of field-goal range, White decided that he'd just go ahead and clinch the win himself, getting back-to-back sacks on Denver's final two plays of the game. Simply put, White was the best player on the field that night.
- Denver's defense played excellent in the second half, but in the first half they weren't so good. TE Jackie Harris particularly gave them trouble, as for the game he caught 5 passes for 128 yards and a 66-yard touchdown. Most of Harris's catches came against Denver ILB Karl Mecklenburg, a fine player in his own right but also a player that struggled to keep up with the much faster Harris. Harris was actually the perfect player for Brett Favre, a tight end with downfield speed who could also make the tough catch in the middle of the field. Instead of becoming a star in Green Bay in playing in Super Bowls, Harris decided to chase the money and signed with Tampa Bay after the 1993 season, and was really never quite as good as he was during the 1992 and 1993 seasons for the Packers, while the Packers moved on with Mark Chmura taking his spot. No offense to Chmura, but Harris was the better athlete and better pass-catcher (although Harris wasn't much of a blocker) and had Harris stayed in Green Bay, I'm willing to bet that Chmura would have either been on the bench or on another team during Green Bay's Super Bowl run.
- Denver had a couple of key plays late in the fourth quarter that went the other way against them. On third down and inside Green Bay territory with less than four minutes to go, Elway fired a pass to rookie WR Tony Kimbourgh that hit the rookie in the hands and bounced to the ground (and also led Kimbourgh straight into S Mike Prior, who creamed him). On the next play, Elway seemed to convert a fourth down with a pass to WR Derek Russell at the 25 yard line, but a false start by Freeman nullified the play and led to the Broncos punting it away. If either play goes the Broncos way, K Jason Elam more than likely kicks a field goal and takes the game into overtime, or Elway leads the Broncos to another touchdown and gets yet another comeback victory, as it looked as if the Packers' offense was so out of sync that it would be hard to imagine them scoring after blowing a 23 point lead.
- A couple of other tidbits from this game: One, two sets of brothers, the Sharpes (Sterling and Shannon), and the Widells (Doug and Dave) played against each other in the game. In fact, the announcers mentioned that the Sharpe brothers had a $20,000 bet for who would have the most catches at the end of the season. Sterling won by the way, with a total of 112 to Shannon's 81. Second, despite being in the NFL for 24 seasons, this was the Broncos' first trip to Lambeau Field. Third, John Elway and Brett Favre would only fave each other twice in their careers, the first being this game, and the second being Super Bowl XXXII, where the Broncos won 31-24.
Well, that's all for now. I think I've overdosed on football for the time being, although since there probably won't be NFL football for three years the only option I'll have is to watch classic NFL games such as this. After this game, both teams would go on to make the playoffs, with the Broncos losing to the Los Angeles Raiders in the first round and the Packers beating the Detroit Lions before falling to the Dallas Cowboys in the second round. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
- Back in 1993, Brett Favre wasn't a quarterback revered by the media for his gunslinging ways and 'playing like a kid out there'. Instead he was a talented young quarterback who had trouble handling the blitz and sometimes moved too fast for his own good. In this game, Favre was rahter inconsistent. In the first half, Favre was great, constantly finding the open man and throwing a 66 yard touchdown to tight end Jackie Harris. In the second half, Favre didn't do so well, as he threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Denver LB Mike Croel (and probably shouldn't have counted as the receiver was clearly interfered with). One pick was really bad in particular, as Favre panicked on a safety blitz and threw a wobbling duck in the air that landed in the hands of CB Le-Lo Lang that gave the ball back to the Broncos on the Green Bay 43 with just over two minutes left. I mean, as soon as Favre let go of the ball, I knew exactly what was going to happen. To be fair to Favre, he didn't have any help at all from his running game (Favre had his team's longest run with a 17 yard scamper in the first quarter), so the Broncos pretty much played the pass for most of the second half because they knew Green Bay couldn't run on them, so that may have contributed to Favre's poor second half. Also, it was refreshing to watch a game with Brett Favre in it where the announcers didn't bend over backwards trying to explain that a Favre INT was somehow the receiver's fault, as TNT announcers (yes this game was on TNT) Gary Bender and Pat Haden were fair with Favre instead of deifying him like some current announcers have done in recent seasons.
- As for the other legendary quarterback, John Elway actually set a career high for moss passes thrown in a game with 59, and most completions with 33 (although that record was later topped). It's not surprising that Elway threw so much since the Broncos trailed big early and basically spent the last three quarters in a hurry-up offense, but despite the Packers constantly playing nickel and dime packages, Elway did rather well. His favorite target during the game was WR Vance Johnson, who made his impact felt on the game with 10 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Not only that, but Johnson made two or three remarkable catches and always seemed to make the catch just when the Broncons needed another third-down conversion. Elway's legendary arm strength was on display in this one, as he threw a couple of passes that almost went through his receivers, and threw one to Johnson so fast that even though a Packer was nearly in front of him, Elway's pass somehow got through for a first down.
- The Packers came into this game 1-3 after signing the biggest free agent of all time, DE Reggie White. Before the game, the announcers stated that Reggie went to the coaching staff and told them that despite the poor start, he still felt that coming to Green Bay was the right decision. Well, good for Reggie for not panicking after his first four games of a five year contract. I mean, what did they expect him to say, that the Packers suck and he should have gone to San Francisco or Miami instead? Anyway, Reggie had a whale of a ball game here, getting three sacks and many pressures on Elway. White was lined up against Denver OT Russell Freeman all game long, and poor Russell never had a chance. When White bull-rushed, he'd go through Freeman. When White decided to go to the outside, he got by Freeman with ease. When Freeman decided to block low, White hurdled over him and still got heat on the quarterback. With less than two minutes left in the game and the Broncos just outside of field-goal range, White decided that he'd just go ahead and clinch the win himself, getting back-to-back sacks on Denver's final two plays of the game. Simply put, White was the best player on the field that night.
- Denver's defense played excellent in the second half, but in the first half they weren't so good. TE Jackie Harris particularly gave them trouble, as for the game he caught 5 passes for 128 yards and a 66-yard touchdown. Most of Harris's catches came against Denver ILB Karl Mecklenburg, a fine player in his own right but also a player that struggled to keep up with the much faster Harris. Harris was actually the perfect player for Brett Favre, a tight end with downfield speed who could also make the tough catch in the middle of the field. Instead of becoming a star in Green Bay in playing in Super Bowls, Harris decided to chase the money and signed with Tampa Bay after the 1993 season, and was really never quite as good as he was during the 1992 and 1993 seasons for the Packers, while the Packers moved on with Mark Chmura taking his spot. No offense to Chmura, but Harris was the better athlete and better pass-catcher (although Harris wasn't much of a blocker) and had Harris stayed in Green Bay, I'm willing to bet that Chmura would have either been on the bench or on another team during Green Bay's Super Bowl run.
- Denver had a couple of key plays late in the fourth quarter that went the other way against them. On third down and inside Green Bay territory with less than four minutes to go, Elway fired a pass to rookie WR Tony Kimbourgh that hit the rookie in the hands and bounced to the ground (and also led Kimbourgh straight into S Mike Prior, who creamed him). On the next play, Elway seemed to convert a fourth down with a pass to WR Derek Russell at the 25 yard line, but a false start by Freeman nullified the play and led to the Broncos punting it away. If either play goes the Broncos way, K Jason Elam more than likely kicks a field goal and takes the game into overtime, or Elway leads the Broncos to another touchdown and gets yet another comeback victory, as it looked as if the Packers' offense was so out of sync that it would be hard to imagine them scoring after blowing a 23 point lead.
- A couple of other tidbits from this game: One, two sets of brothers, the Sharpes (Sterling and Shannon), and the Widells (Doug and Dave) played against each other in the game. In fact, the announcers mentioned that the Sharpe brothers had a $20,000 bet for who would have the most catches at the end of the season. Sterling won by the way, with a total of 112 to Shannon's 81. Second, despite being in the NFL for 24 seasons, this was the Broncos' first trip to Lambeau Field. Third, John Elway and Brett Favre would only fave each other twice in their careers, the first being this game, and the second being Super Bowl XXXII, where the Broncos won 31-24.
Well, that's all for now. I think I've overdosed on football for the time being, although since there probably won't be NFL football for three years the only option I'll have is to watch classic NFL games such as this. After this game, both teams would go on to make the playoffs, with the Broncos losing to the Los Angeles Raiders in the first round and the Packers beating the Detroit Lions before falling to the Dallas Cowboys in the second round. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers, NFC Championship Game, January 10, 1982
The second game of The Canon Review football fix weekend is one of the most memorable games of all time, the 1981 NFC Championship Game between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. This game is remembered for 'The Catch', as Dwight Clark leaped high in the air to score the winning touchdown for the 49ers with less than a minute to go. The 49ers won this game 28-27, in a game that put them on the map and sent them on their way to becoming the team of the 1980s. In a way, this was almost a passing of the torch, as the Cowboys had been the dominant power in the NFC during the 1970s while the 49ers would become the top dog in the 1980s. This game featured five Hall of Fame players, two Hall of Fame coaches on the sideline and a third one, Hank Stram, in the broadcast booth with Vin Scully, and also featured a bunch of obscure running backs for the 49ers, including Lenvil Elliott. Elliott had been cut before the season and was only activated the week before due to injury, but ended up starting the game despite carrying the ball seven times during the regular season. A few other notes from this game:
- The 49ers started their game winning drive from their own 11 yard line with less than five minutes to go. The Cowboys played the pass by putting in six defensive backs, but coach Bill Walsh crossed the Cowboys up by relying a lot on the running game even though the 49ers had mixed success with the running game up to that point. The team relied on Elliott to carry the ball and short passes to move the ball downfield. Also, they called a reverse to WR Freddie Solomon which gained 12 yards after the two minute warning. A risky play, but unlike the reverse the Bears called in the 2010 NFC Championship Game, this one worked like a charm. Right after that, Montana fired a pass into double coverage which Dwight Clark somehow caught. If CB Everson Walls had gotten to that spot a split second earlier, he would have had an interception (which would have been his third) and the Cowboys would have won the game. Also, two plays before The Catch, Solomon was wide open in the end zone, but Montana rushed his throw and overthrew his receiver, just like he nearly overthrew Clark.
- Even though the niners gained the lead after 'The Catch', the game had 52 seconds left and the Cowboys had two timeouts. On the first play from scrimmage, QB Danny White hit Drew Pearson streaking down the middle of the field, and only a horse-collar tackle by 49ers CB Eric Wright stopped Dallas from taking the lead. On the next play, the 49ers defense recovered, as lineman Lawrence Pillers tore through the Cowboys' offensive line and forced a fumble, which DE Jim Stuckey recovered to salt the game. Nevertheless, the Cowboys were only a step away from going to the Super Bowl.
- One thing that struck me about this game is that the 49ers seemed to be the more talented team of the two, as they easily moved the ball down the field all game long and their defense caused all sorts of trouble for Danny White. However, the 49ers kept shooting themselves in the foot, as they turned the ball over six times. Montana threw three interceptions, two deep balls that Walls picked off, and one short pass that was tipped and picked off by DT Randy White. Also, the Cowboys scored two touchdowns after fumbles by RBs Bill Ring and Walt Easley in 49ers territory. If the 49ers were able to hold on to the ball better, they would have won this game by two touchdowns. Perhaps nerves got the better of them early on, but at least the 49ers were cool and collected when it mattered most.
- The Cowboys scored another touchdown after an interception by Ronnie Lott was called back due to pass interference. It was a terrible call, as Lott never even touched Pearson when the two were going for the ball. Maybe it's by anti-Cowboy bias, but it sure seemed as if the refs were favoring the so called "America's Team". On the play just before Lott's penalty, Tony Hill seemed to be out of bounds on a catch, but the catch was allowed anyway, and the Cowboys seemed to get some generous spots on plays close to the first down marker. Later on in the game, Lott was called for another pass interefernce penalty, although this one was obvious, and in the fourth quarter, Lott injured his hand and after every play would bend over wincing in pain. So, all in all, not the greatest day for Lott, although maybe at the time he felt it was the greatest day he ever had.
- This was an intense, hard-hitting football game between two top notch teams, although it wasn't the greatest game ever played. For one, all the turnovers didn't help, and also the field at Candlestick Park was a mess. Even though the grounds crew did the best they could, players were slipping and sliding all game long on the field, and the Cowboys seemed more effected by it than the 49ers. I don't think it made a difference in the final result, but who knows what would have happened if the game was played on a drier field.
- The 49ers played rather well on defense given the fact that they had to overcome six turnovers. DEs Dwaine Board and Fred Dean applied pressure all day, and while Tony Dorsett gained 91 yards, he never popped off a huge gain, as his longest gain went 11 yards. OLB Willie Harper was probably the best player on the 49ers defense this day, as he was all over the field making key stops on both the run and the pass. The game must have extra important for Harper, as he was the longest tenured 49er on the roster having been there since 1973, and played on some really bad teams. Also, the other outside linebacker, Keena Turner, played the game despite having the chicken pox. Hopefully the Cowboys got some shots before the game or at least had chicken pox during their childhoods.
- Here's something that I found interesting. The Cowboys punter was also their starting quarterback, Danny White, and I beleive that he was the last full-time starting quarterback who also doubled as a punter (Tom Tupa played QB and punter a few times during his career, but he was never a long term starter). Also, San Francisco's punter Jim Miller punted barefoot, which I can't imagine doing without hurting. But I guess it worked for him.
- One thing that I noticed about the telecast was that there weren't a lot of cutaways to the head coaches. Sure, there were some, but it's nothing like modern day telecasts where every play is followed by a shot of Andy Reid or Bill Belicheck reacting to the previous play. I think it was better back then, as we really don't need to see Belicheck have the same stone faced look after every play or Norv Turner looking befuddled as usual. As for the broadcast team, I though Vin Scully and Stram did a great job calling the game, as Stram was very informative and Scully was his typical great self.
So, that's that. As you may know, the 49ers would go on to win the Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals two weeks after this game, and would win three more during the decade. While the Dallas Cowboys would rebound and make another appearance in the NFC Championship Game next year, 1981 was probably the Landry Cowboys last best shot at winning a title, and a few years later, the Cowboys would fade into mediocrity before Jimmy Johnson brought them back a decade later. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
- The 49ers started their game winning drive from their own 11 yard line with less than five minutes to go. The Cowboys played the pass by putting in six defensive backs, but coach Bill Walsh crossed the Cowboys up by relying a lot on the running game even though the 49ers had mixed success with the running game up to that point. The team relied on Elliott to carry the ball and short passes to move the ball downfield. Also, they called a reverse to WR Freddie Solomon which gained 12 yards after the two minute warning. A risky play, but unlike the reverse the Bears called in the 2010 NFC Championship Game, this one worked like a charm. Right after that, Montana fired a pass into double coverage which Dwight Clark somehow caught. If CB Everson Walls had gotten to that spot a split second earlier, he would have had an interception (which would have been his third) and the Cowboys would have won the game. Also, two plays before The Catch, Solomon was wide open in the end zone, but Montana rushed his throw and overthrew his receiver, just like he nearly overthrew Clark.
- Even though the niners gained the lead after 'The Catch', the game had 52 seconds left and the Cowboys had two timeouts. On the first play from scrimmage, QB Danny White hit Drew Pearson streaking down the middle of the field, and only a horse-collar tackle by 49ers CB Eric Wright stopped Dallas from taking the lead. On the next play, the 49ers defense recovered, as lineman Lawrence Pillers tore through the Cowboys' offensive line and forced a fumble, which DE Jim Stuckey recovered to salt the game. Nevertheless, the Cowboys were only a step away from going to the Super Bowl.
- One thing that struck me about this game is that the 49ers seemed to be the more talented team of the two, as they easily moved the ball down the field all game long and their defense caused all sorts of trouble for Danny White. However, the 49ers kept shooting themselves in the foot, as they turned the ball over six times. Montana threw three interceptions, two deep balls that Walls picked off, and one short pass that was tipped and picked off by DT Randy White. Also, the Cowboys scored two touchdowns after fumbles by RBs Bill Ring and Walt Easley in 49ers territory. If the 49ers were able to hold on to the ball better, they would have won this game by two touchdowns. Perhaps nerves got the better of them early on, but at least the 49ers were cool and collected when it mattered most.
- The Cowboys scored another touchdown after an interception by Ronnie Lott was called back due to pass interference. It was a terrible call, as Lott never even touched Pearson when the two were going for the ball. Maybe it's by anti-Cowboy bias, but it sure seemed as if the refs were favoring the so called "America's Team". On the play just before Lott's penalty, Tony Hill seemed to be out of bounds on a catch, but the catch was allowed anyway, and the Cowboys seemed to get some generous spots on plays close to the first down marker. Later on in the game, Lott was called for another pass interefernce penalty, although this one was obvious, and in the fourth quarter, Lott injured his hand and after every play would bend over wincing in pain. So, all in all, not the greatest day for Lott, although maybe at the time he felt it was the greatest day he ever had.
- This was an intense, hard-hitting football game between two top notch teams, although it wasn't the greatest game ever played. For one, all the turnovers didn't help, and also the field at Candlestick Park was a mess. Even though the grounds crew did the best they could, players were slipping and sliding all game long on the field, and the Cowboys seemed more effected by it than the 49ers. I don't think it made a difference in the final result, but who knows what would have happened if the game was played on a drier field.
- The 49ers played rather well on defense given the fact that they had to overcome six turnovers. DEs Dwaine Board and Fred Dean applied pressure all day, and while Tony Dorsett gained 91 yards, he never popped off a huge gain, as his longest gain went 11 yards. OLB Willie Harper was probably the best player on the 49ers defense this day, as he was all over the field making key stops on both the run and the pass. The game must have extra important for Harper, as he was the longest tenured 49er on the roster having been there since 1973, and played on some really bad teams. Also, the other outside linebacker, Keena Turner, played the game despite having the chicken pox. Hopefully the Cowboys got some shots before the game or at least had chicken pox during their childhoods.
- Here's something that I found interesting. The Cowboys punter was also their starting quarterback, Danny White, and I beleive that he was the last full-time starting quarterback who also doubled as a punter (Tom Tupa played QB and punter a few times during his career, but he was never a long term starter). Also, San Francisco's punter Jim Miller punted barefoot, which I can't imagine doing without hurting. But I guess it worked for him.
- One thing that I noticed about the telecast was that there weren't a lot of cutaways to the head coaches. Sure, there were some, but it's nothing like modern day telecasts where every play is followed by a shot of Andy Reid or Bill Belicheck reacting to the previous play. I think it was better back then, as we really don't need to see Belicheck have the same stone faced look after every play or Norv Turner looking befuddled as usual. As for the broadcast team, I though Vin Scully and Stram did a great job calling the game, as Stram was very informative and Scully was his typical great self.
So, that's that. As you may know, the 49ers would go on to win the Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals two weeks after this game, and would win three more during the decade. While the Dallas Cowboys would rebound and make another appearance in the NFC Championship Game next year, 1981 was probably the Landry Cowboys last best shot at winning a title, and a few years later, the Cowboys would fade into mediocrity before Jimmy Johnson brought them back a decade later. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears, October 6, 1991
Man, I don't know about you, but I'm already missing football. Also, with labor talks breaking down and a possible lookout looming more than ever, we may not see NFL football for a while. So, all weekend long, I have decided to watch a game each day and review it. Today's post is about the week 6 game in 1991 between the Chicago Bears (4-1) versus the Washington Redskins (5-0), a game that featured four future Hall of Famers, two Super Bowl winning coaches, the former and current coach of the San Francisco 49ers, and Matt Millen. At the end of day, it was the Redskins that would emerge victorious, by a 20-7 margin. Here are a few notes about this game:
- The stars of this game were the Washington Redskins defense, particularly their defensive line. Bears QB Jim Harbaugh had no time to throw all day long and took tremendous hits thanks to the pressure from DTs Tim Johnson and Eric Williams, as well as DE Charles Mann. In an attempt to put more pressure on Harbaugh, the 'Skins would often line up Mann inside across from Bears C Jay Hilgenberg, and for most of the first half Hilgenberg just couldn't handle him before eventually slowing him down in the second half. Even though Harbaugh took lots of hits, the Bears never made an adjustment by keeping an extra back in to block or putting Harbaugh in the shotgun until late in the game. As a result, Harbaugh was rushed into making some terrible throws and finished the day 17-41 with three interceptions. Harbaugh was so rattled that on one play, he kept dropping back before finally floating a pass in the air attended for RB Neal Anderson, but LB Kurt Gouveia just waited for the ball to come down and picked it off easily. Needless to say, it was not Harbaugh's finest day.
- Even though the Redskins won 20-7 and were only up 10-7 at the end of the third quarter, the score does not illustrate how much they outplayed the Bears in this game. In fact, the Redskins could have had two more touchdowns had Mark Rypien been more accurate. In the first quarter, WR Gary Clark had CB Leumel Stinson beat downfield, but Rypien underthrew it and Stinston picked it off at the five yard line. In the third quarter, Clark once again beat his man downfield, but this time Rypien rushed his throw despite nobody being around him and overthrew his man. I will say that Rypien played a decent game, though he received a lot of help from Clark and WR Art Monk. Monk in particular had a strong game, catching two touchdown passes and making a key catch on fourth down despite taking not one, but two hard hits from Bears secondary players. Monk's stats weren't that impressive (6 catches, 69 yards), but he had the biggest individual impact on the game and played like, well, a Hall of Famer.
- Rypien was also a lot more mobile then I remember him being. Sure, he wasn't Michael Vick like, but for a big guy Rypien could move back in the pocket. One of the keys to the Redskins offense getting on track was Rypien's ability to roll out of the pocket to the right and buying him extra time to find a receiver. That way, not only could Rypien buy more time, but it also moved the play away from Bears DE Richard Dent, and it didn't hurt that the 'Skins had All-Pros Mark Schlerth and Joe Jacoby on the right side and that the Bears were without their other defensive end, Trace Armstrong.
- While Harbaugh didn't have the best game, he didn't get a lot of help either. The Redskins kept Anderson in check for most of the game, holding the back for 73 yards. A bigger problem for Harbaugh was the drops by his receivers, as the Bears dropped five passes in the first half. The biggest came in the first quarter where Harbaugh had Wendell Davis wide open at midfield and threw a perfect strike, only for Davis to drop it. Davis may not have scored on the play, but he had enough room to get at least in field goal range, and the whole game might have changed had Davis held on to that ball.
- For a while, it looked as if the referees were going to take over the game, as there were eight penalties called in the first quarter alone. Some were legitimate, but each team had a big run taken back on holding calls that were borderline at best, and all the penalties really slowed the game's pace to a crawl and took the Bears' crowd out of the game. Speaking of which, John Madden would constantly express his surprise at the lack of noise the Bears fans were making, considering they were playing at home against a top-notch opponent. Eventually, this lethargy carried over to the Bears, who played with a lack of urgency and spark all game long. Even coach Mike Ditka was surprisingly calm as his team made mistake after mistake.
- The game was called by Pat Summerall and John Madden, which is always a good thing, unless the game is over and Madden blabs about whatever just happens to be on his mind at the time. He spent an entire minute talking about Redskins LB Matt Millen and how the number 57 just didn't suit Millen. In Madden's mind, 57 was too long a number. I have no idea what he meant by that, but that's what he said.
So that's that. After this game, the Redskins would win their next five games before finally losing to the Cowboys, then the Redskins would go on to win the Super Bowl against the Buffalo Bills. The Bears would finish 1991 at 11-5, but lost to the Dallas Cowboys in what turned out to be the final playoff game Mike Ditka would coach, unless he decides to come back in the future, which seems unlikely. At the end of the day, the Bears just didn't have enough firepower to overtake the challenging Redskins' defense, and despite some shaky play from Mark Rypien and a running game that was ineffective, the Redskins made this game look easy. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
- The stars of this game were the Washington Redskins defense, particularly their defensive line. Bears QB Jim Harbaugh had no time to throw all day long and took tremendous hits thanks to the pressure from DTs Tim Johnson and Eric Williams, as well as DE Charles Mann. In an attempt to put more pressure on Harbaugh, the 'Skins would often line up Mann inside across from Bears C Jay Hilgenberg, and for most of the first half Hilgenberg just couldn't handle him before eventually slowing him down in the second half. Even though Harbaugh took lots of hits, the Bears never made an adjustment by keeping an extra back in to block or putting Harbaugh in the shotgun until late in the game. As a result, Harbaugh was rushed into making some terrible throws and finished the day 17-41 with three interceptions. Harbaugh was so rattled that on one play, he kept dropping back before finally floating a pass in the air attended for RB Neal Anderson, but LB Kurt Gouveia just waited for the ball to come down and picked it off easily. Needless to say, it was not Harbaugh's finest day.
- Even though the Redskins won 20-7 and were only up 10-7 at the end of the third quarter, the score does not illustrate how much they outplayed the Bears in this game. In fact, the Redskins could have had two more touchdowns had Mark Rypien been more accurate. In the first quarter, WR Gary Clark had CB Leumel Stinson beat downfield, but Rypien underthrew it and Stinston picked it off at the five yard line. In the third quarter, Clark once again beat his man downfield, but this time Rypien rushed his throw despite nobody being around him and overthrew his man. I will say that Rypien played a decent game, though he received a lot of help from Clark and WR Art Monk. Monk in particular had a strong game, catching two touchdown passes and making a key catch on fourth down despite taking not one, but two hard hits from Bears secondary players. Monk's stats weren't that impressive (6 catches, 69 yards), but he had the biggest individual impact on the game and played like, well, a Hall of Famer.
- Rypien was also a lot more mobile then I remember him being. Sure, he wasn't Michael Vick like, but for a big guy Rypien could move back in the pocket. One of the keys to the Redskins offense getting on track was Rypien's ability to roll out of the pocket to the right and buying him extra time to find a receiver. That way, not only could Rypien buy more time, but it also moved the play away from Bears DE Richard Dent, and it didn't hurt that the 'Skins had All-Pros Mark Schlerth and Joe Jacoby on the right side and that the Bears were without their other defensive end, Trace Armstrong.
- While Harbaugh didn't have the best game, he didn't get a lot of help either. The Redskins kept Anderson in check for most of the game, holding the back for 73 yards. A bigger problem for Harbaugh was the drops by his receivers, as the Bears dropped five passes in the first half. The biggest came in the first quarter where Harbaugh had Wendell Davis wide open at midfield and threw a perfect strike, only for Davis to drop it. Davis may not have scored on the play, but he had enough room to get at least in field goal range, and the whole game might have changed had Davis held on to that ball.
- For a while, it looked as if the referees were going to take over the game, as there were eight penalties called in the first quarter alone. Some were legitimate, but each team had a big run taken back on holding calls that were borderline at best, and all the penalties really slowed the game's pace to a crawl and took the Bears' crowd out of the game. Speaking of which, John Madden would constantly express his surprise at the lack of noise the Bears fans were making, considering they were playing at home against a top-notch opponent. Eventually, this lethargy carried over to the Bears, who played with a lack of urgency and spark all game long. Even coach Mike Ditka was surprisingly calm as his team made mistake after mistake.
- The game was called by Pat Summerall and John Madden, which is always a good thing, unless the game is over and Madden blabs about whatever just happens to be on his mind at the time. He spent an entire minute talking about Redskins LB Matt Millen and how the number 57 just didn't suit Millen. In Madden's mind, 57 was too long a number. I have no idea what he meant by that, but that's what he said.
So that's that. After this game, the Redskins would win their next five games before finally losing to the Cowboys, then the Redskins would go on to win the Super Bowl against the Buffalo Bills. The Bears would finish 1991 at 11-5, but lost to the Dallas Cowboys in what turned out to be the final playoff game Mike Ditka would coach, unless he decides to come back in the future, which seems unlikely. At the end of the day, the Bears just didn't have enough firepower to overtake the challenging Redskins' defense, and despite some shaky play from Mark Rypien and a running game that was ineffective, the Redskins made this game look easy. Well, thanks for reading, and if you any ideas for future posts, or thoughts about this post, than either leave a comment on the blog or send them to me at e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers, NFC Playoff Game, January 9, 1988
Earlier this week, the Green Bay Packers came into the home stadium of the number one seed in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons, and beat them. Not only that, but the same thing happened in the AFC when the Jets beat the Patriots. Now, while the Jets beating the Patriots was kind of a big deal, I had a much more personal interest in the Falcons' loss over the Packers, as the Falcons have been my favorite team ever since I started watching football. As a Falcons fan, I'd be lying if I stated that I was totally shocked by the result, as rooting for a team that has had 12 winning seasons in its 45 year existence tends to make you expect the worst as a fan. But this was supposed to be different. After all, Matt Ryan had a 21-2 record in his career at the Georgia Dome, and the Falcons had beaten the Packers earlier in the season. But by now you probably know what happened, Aaron Rodgers played the best game of his life, the Falcons had no answers on defense and couldn't move the ball on offense, and the Packers were the team that advance to the NFC Championship Game.
So, you're probably wondering just what does all this have to do with a playoff game in 1987 (well, technically 1988, but it was during the 1987 season) between the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. Well, just like the Falcons, the 49ers were the number one seed in the conference that year, finishing with a 13-2 record (the season was shortened a game due to a player strike) and seemed poised to make a run at the Super Bowl. Unlike the 2010 Packers, the 1987 Vikings were not expected to make a game out of this, as they finished 8-7 and were picked by hardly anyone to beat the mighty 49ers, especially considering that they were starting a backup quarterback in Wade Wilson. So what happened? Well for one Vikings wide receiver Anthony Carter had the best playoff game a wide receiver has ever had, and the great Joe Montana struggled with the wet field and the Vikings pass rush, and the upstart Vikings knocked San Francisco out of the playoffs with a 36-24 victory in what is considered one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. A few notes about this game:
- This game had a few, though not many, similarities to the debacle that occurred in Atlanta on Saturday night. For one, neither the Vikings nor the Packers ran the ball particularly well in their respective games. The Vikings' leading rusher was Darrin Nelson, who ran for a mere 42 yards, and their only big run gain came from a 30-yard reverse to Carter. Meanwhile, the Packers ran for 96 yards on 31 carries Saturday. Another thing was that both the Packers' and Vikings' quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Wade Wilson, respectively, were able to use their speed and scrambling ability to constantly escape the pass rush to keep the play alive and make a play downfield (although Rodgers is a much better player than Wilson). Also, in the second quarter of each game, both losing quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Matt Ryan, through an ill-advised out pattern to the left side that was picked off by a cornerback (Reggie Rutland for the Vikings, Tremon Williams for the Packers) which resulted in both men racing down the sidelines and score back-breaking touchdowns that put the game out of reach.
- The Vikings gained 397 yards on offense, and Anthony Carter was responsible for 257 of them. Carter did his damage in a variety of ways, from catching short slant patterns and picking up a few extra yards after the catch, to his 30 yard run on a reverse, to two big time catches on deep balls thrown by Wilson. In the second quarter, Wilson threw a pass that was tipped by 49ers cornerback Don Griffin, only for Carter to snatch it out of the air and race downfield for a 63 yard gain before finally being knocked out of bounds. In the third corner, Carter made one of the best catches I've ever seen with a leaping, over-the-shoulder grab on a deep pass on the sideline over cornerback Tim McKyer, and then somehow keeping both feet in bounds despite McKyer hitting him while in mid air. While Carter did not score a touchdown in this game, it's safe to say that without him, the Vikings would have never scored a touchdown in this game, and Carter did all of this while a) playing on a soggy field on which his foe, 49ers WR Jerry Rice, struggled on all game, and b) with a myraid of injuries, including a sore shoulder and strained groin muscle. Carter's 227 yards set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a playoff game (that has since been broken), and his 257 yards from scrimmage remains the second highest total in playoff history.
- Meanwhile, the 49ers offense wasn't quite as sharp, as Joe Montana had an uncharacteristically bad game in the playoffs. A lot of the credit for that should go to the Vikings defense, as DE Chris Doleman hounded Montana all day and got 2 sacks on LT Bubba Paris. Also, Vikings cornerbacks Carl Lee, Issiac Holt, and Reggie Rutland did what seemed like the impossible and held Jerry Rice, who came into the game scoring a touchdown in each of his last 13 games, to 3 catches for 28 yards and no touchdowns. Things got so bad for Montana that Bill Walsh pulled him in the middle of the third period for Steve Young, a much quicker quarterback. Young played pretty well, leading the 49ers with 72 rushing yards and completing 12 of 17 passes, and after every big play made by Young, the cameras would cut to Montana on the sidelines with an annoyed look on his face. At the end, Walsh and Montana had an awkward conversation on the sideline with Montana seemingly wanting nothing to do with his coach at the time, which was fascinating to watch. Say what you will about Walsh having a quick trigger finger, but the offense wasn't doing anything under Montana, and sometimes a change at QB will give a team the spark it needs, so it was the right call, even if it was ultimately for naught.
- There were a couple of points where the 49ers could have changed the course of the game. The biggest one came on the final play of the first quarter with the score knotted at 3. Wilson dropped back to pass, and threw to WR Leo Lewis in double coverage. S Ronnie Lott cut in front of the receiver to pick off the ball and was stopped deep in Vikings territory. But DB Tory Nixon grabbed Lewis just before the pass got there and was called for pass interference. To make matters worse, the interference was totally unnecessary as Lott would have picked the pass off even if Nixon hadn't laid a finger on Lewis. So instead of having the ball deep in their opponents territory, the 49ers allowed the first deep pass to Carter and eventually a touchdown pass to Carl Hilton. Also, the 49ers could have gone into halftime down by 7, but K Ray Wersching missed a 26 yard field goal at the end of the half, which certainly didn't help matters.
- Chuck Nelson, the Vikings kicker, came into the game with a 54 percent field goal success rate (13-24) and in 1987 was one out of eight of field goals past 40 yards, despite playing half his games in a climate controlled dome. In this game, the spirit of Lou Groza must have possessed Nelson, as he hit all five of his field goal attempts on a sloppy field, and two of those were past 40 yards, including a 47 yard kick in the wind that just got over the crossbar. The Vikings had some severe trouble in the red zone in this game, as they had no running game and would constantly get stuffed trying to run the ball in the end zone, so Nelson's contribution was quite important, and the Vikings may not of won had he not had the best game of his career that day.
So, what happened after the 49ers lost a game after being the number one seed. Well, they won the Super Bowl the next two seasons. The 1996 Broncos also repeated this feat after their shocking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. So that's something for Falcons and Patriots fans to take comfort in. Of course, the 2008 Giants and Titans also lost in similar circumstances and haven't been back to the playoffs since, so you can never tell with these types of things. In this game, the 49ers had an off-day in every facet of the game and faced a wide receiver that had a career day. Stuff like that happens. If the two teams played 10 times, the 49ers would likely win seven or eight times out of 10. But in the playoffs, you only get one shot, and the Minnesota Vikings took advantage of their one chance by playing a great game. After this game, the Vikings came within a Darrell Green tipped pass from going to the Super Bowl, or at least to overtime in the NFC Championship Game, as they lost 17-10 to the Redskins when the game ended on a goal line stand. These two teams would meet again in the second round of the 1988 and 1989 playoffs, but the 49ers had the Vikings number each time. However, on this day, facing a team that coach Bill Walsh called his best team, the Vikings shocked the world, which goes to show that you never know what to expect in football.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any thoughts about this or other posts, or ideas for future posts, than let me know about them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at kthec2001@gmail.com.
So, you're probably wondering just what does all this have to do with a playoff game in 1987 (well, technically 1988, but it was during the 1987 season) between the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. Well, just like the Falcons, the 49ers were the number one seed in the conference that year, finishing with a 13-2 record (the season was shortened a game due to a player strike) and seemed poised to make a run at the Super Bowl. Unlike the 2010 Packers, the 1987 Vikings were not expected to make a game out of this, as they finished 8-7 and were picked by hardly anyone to beat the mighty 49ers, especially considering that they were starting a backup quarterback in Wade Wilson. So what happened? Well for one Vikings wide receiver Anthony Carter had the best playoff game a wide receiver has ever had, and the great Joe Montana struggled with the wet field and the Vikings pass rush, and the upstart Vikings knocked San Francisco out of the playoffs with a 36-24 victory in what is considered one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. A few notes about this game:
- This game had a few, though not many, similarities to the debacle that occurred in Atlanta on Saturday night. For one, neither the Vikings nor the Packers ran the ball particularly well in their respective games. The Vikings' leading rusher was Darrin Nelson, who ran for a mere 42 yards, and their only big run gain came from a 30-yard reverse to Carter. Meanwhile, the Packers ran for 96 yards on 31 carries Saturday. Another thing was that both the Packers' and Vikings' quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Wade Wilson, respectively, were able to use their speed and scrambling ability to constantly escape the pass rush to keep the play alive and make a play downfield (although Rodgers is a much better player than Wilson). Also, in the second quarter of each game, both losing quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Matt Ryan, through an ill-advised out pattern to the left side that was picked off by a cornerback (Reggie Rutland for the Vikings, Tremon Williams for the Packers) which resulted in both men racing down the sidelines and score back-breaking touchdowns that put the game out of reach.
- The Vikings gained 397 yards on offense, and Anthony Carter was responsible for 257 of them. Carter did his damage in a variety of ways, from catching short slant patterns and picking up a few extra yards after the catch, to his 30 yard run on a reverse, to two big time catches on deep balls thrown by Wilson. In the second quarter, Wilson threw a pass that was tipped by 49ers cornerback Don Griffin, only for Carter to snatch it out of the air and race downfield for a 63 yard gain before finally being knocked out of bounds. In the third corner, Carter made one of the best catches I've ever seen with a leaping, over-the-shoulder grab on a deep pass on the sideline over cornerback Tim McKyer, and then somehow keeping both feet in bounds despite McKyer hitting him while in mid air. While Carter did not score a touchdown in this game, it's safe to say that without him, the Vikings would have never scored a touchdown in this game, and Carter did all of this while a) playing on a soggy field on which his foe, 49ers WR Jerry Rice, struggled on all game, and b) with a myraid of injuries, including a sore shoulder and strained groin muscle. Carter's 227 yards set an NFL record for most receiving yards in a playoff game (that has since been broken), and his 257 yards from scrimmage remains the second highest total in playoff history.
- Meanwhile, the 49ers offense wasn't quite as sharp, as Joe Montana had an uncharacteristically bad game in the playoffs. A lot of the credit for that should go to the Vikings defense, as DE Chris Doleman hounded Montana all day and got 2 sacks on LT Bubba Paris. Also, Vikings cornerbacks Carl Lee, Issiac Holt, and Reggie Rutland did what seemed like the impossible and held Jerry Rice, who came into the game scoring a touchdown in each of his last 13 games, to 3 catches for 28 yards and no touchdowns. Things got so bad for Montana that Bill Walsh pulled him in the middle of the third period for Steve Young, a much quicker quarterback. Young played pretty well, leading the 49ers with 72 rushing yards and completing 12 of 17 passes, and after every big play made by Young, the cameras would cut to Montana on the sidelines with an annoyed look on his face. At the end, Walsh and Montana had an awkward conversation on the sideline with Montana seemingly wanting nothing to do with his coach at the time, which was fascinating to watch. Say what you will about Walsh having a quick trigger finger, but the offense wasn't doing anything under Montana, and sometimes a change at QB will give a team the spark it needs, so it was the right call, even if it was ultimately for naught.
- There were a couple of points where the 49ers could have changed the course of the game. The biggest one came on the final play of the first quarter with the score knotted at 3. Wilson dropped back to pass, and threw to WR Leo Lewis in double coverage. S Ronnie Lott cut in front of the receiver to pick off the ball and was stopped deep in Vikings territory. But DB Tory Nixon grabbed Lewis just before the pass got there and was called for pass interference. To make matters worse, the interference was totally unnecessary as Lott would have picked the pass off even if Nixon hadn't laid a finger on Lewis. So instead of having the ball deep in their opponents territory, the 49ers allowed the first deep pass to Carter and eventually a touchdown pass to Carl Hilton. Also, the 49ers could have gone into halftime down by 7, but K Ray Wersching missed a 26 yard field goal at the end of the half, which certainly didn't help matters.
- Chuck Nelson, the Vikings kicker, came into the game with a 54 percent field goal success rate (13-24) and in 1987 was one out of eight of field goals past 40 yards, despite playing half his games in a climate controlled dome. In this game, the spirit of Lou Groza must have possessed Nelson, as he hit all five of his field goal attempts on a sloppy field, and two of those were past 40 yards, including a 47 yard kick in the wind that just got over the crossbar. The Vikings had some severe trouble in the red zone in this game, as they had no running game and would constantly get stuffed trying to run the ball in the end zone, so Nelson's contribution was quite important, and the Vikings may not of won had he not had the best game of his career that day.
So, what happened after the 49ers lost a game after being the number one seed. Well, they won the Super Bowl the next two seasons. The 1996 Broncos also repeated this feat after their shocking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. So that's something for Falcons and Patriots fans to take comfort in. Of course, the 2008 Giants and Titans also lost in similar circumstances and haven't been back to the playoffs since, so you can never tell with these types of things. In this game, the 49ers had an off-day in every facet of the game and faced a wide receiver that had a career day. Stuff like that happens. If the two teams played 10 times, the 49ers would likely win seven or eight times out of 10. But in the playoffs, you only get one shot, and the Minnesota Vikings took advantage of their one chance by playing a great game. After this game, the Vikings came within a Darrell Green tipped pass from going to the Super Bowl, or at least to overtime in the NFC Championship Game, as they lost 17-10 to the Redskins when the game ended on a goal line stand. These two teams would meet again in the second round of the 1988 and 1989 playoffs, but the 49ers had the Vikings number each time. However, on this day, facing a team that coach Bill Walsh called his best team, the Vikings shocked the world, which goes to show that you never know what to expect in football.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any thoughts about this or other posts, or ideas for future posts, than let me know about them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at kthec2001@gmail.com.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Your 2010 Canon Review Pro Football Preview End of Season Review
2010 was quite possibly the wildest and wackiest season the NFL has ever had. Well, except for the 1987 season where teams put out replacement players due to the strike, but that's another story. This season had all sorts of unexpected occurrences, from the collapse of the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, to a team with a losing record, the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks, winning their division and becoming the first losing team to ever make the postseason. This season saw the redemption of Michael Vick, the reestablishment of Tom Brady as the NFL's best quarterback, and saw Donovan McNabb get traded to the Redskins, sign a multi-million dollar contract extension the same night his team gets crushed by his former team, the Eagles, and eventually sees coach Mike Shanahan bench McNabb for the immortal Rex Grossman. Also, 2010 was (hopefully) the final season of Brett Favre, who proved two things, that even he can't play at a high level forever, and that it's not a good idea to send pictures of your junk to female team employees. We also saw the saga of Randy Moss, who in a matter of weeks managed to complain about his current team (the Patriots) not offering him a contract extension, get traded to the Vikings, come back to play the Patriots and then praise the Patriots organization during his entire post-game press conference, complain about the team's catering to such an extent that the Vikings cut him, and sign with the Titans where he does absolutely nothing (6 catches for 80 yards).. Those events are only the tip of the iceberg in a crazy season that will probably be followed by the craziest offeseaon in recent memory, as the owners and players union try to work out a new collective bargaining agreement which has been greatly complicated due to commissioner Roger Goodell's insistence to extend the regular season to 18 games, among other factors, and if an agreement is not reached, well we could be without pro football next year. But that's next year, instead it's time for me to take a look back at my picks at the beginning of this season and see just how good, or bad, I was able to prognosticate the 2010 NFL season. If you want, you can take a look at my original picks here, and my midseason review here.
AFC East (* - Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New York Jets* (11-5)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Although I was correct about New England, I'd be lying if I said I expected the Patriots to dominate to the extent that they have this season. QB Tom Brady has the Patriots offense firing on all cylinders, and unheralded players such as RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and TE Rob Gronkowski have developed into dangerous offensive players. After finishing the season on an eight game winning streak, the Patriots are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. I was wrong about the Jets, as the team that I thought was overrated proved me wrong and won 11 games to earn a spot in the playoffs. A Super Bowl appearance seems unlikely for New York, but Rex Ryan and his boys are hungry, and will be looking to snack on their playoff foes. The Dolphins has a solid defense, but their offense wasn't so good, as they scored the third fewest points in the NFL this year. At midseason, some people, including me, were afraid that the Bills would go the entire season without a win. But those fears were unfounded, as the Bills went 4-4 in the second half, and were a dropped pass away from beating the playoff bound Steelers. Maybe next year will be the year that the Bills get out of the cellar in back into playoff contention. After all, if the Raiders, Chiefs, and Bucs can drastically improve, then why not the Bills.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers* 2. Baltimore Ravens* (12-4)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
Well, I had the top two teams making the playoffs, but just in the wrong order. The Steelers, despite missing QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games of the season, cruised to a 12-4 record and a first round bye, thanks in large part due to their top ranked defense and running game. Meanwhile, the Ravens also went 12-4 behind their third ranked defense, but could have gone 15-1 had they been able to close out games against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New England. To be fair, those teams had the three best records in the NFL, so the Ravens have at least proven they can hang with anybody in the league. Here's hoping for a third matchup between the Ravens and Steelers in the playoffs. I didn't think too highly of the Bengals at the beginning of the season, but I didn't think they would sink from 11 wins to 4 this year. It might be time to make massive changes in Cincinnati this offseason. The Browns were what we thought they were, although to their credit, they are only one of two teams to beat the Patriots this year. That wasn't enough to save coach Eric Mangini's job, but at least the Browns showed some glimmers of hope this season.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Houston Texans 4. Houston Texans (6-10)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Houston Texans 4. Houston Texans (6-10)
The Colts may have been banged up this year, but QB Peyton Manning and his crew survived enough injuries to put up a ten win season and win another division title. Of course, it helped that the other three teams had issues of their own. The Jaguars went 8-8 after a three game losing streak at the end of the season. In week 15, the Jaguars could have clinched the division with a win against the Colts, but fell, and then injuries to players such as RB Maurice Jones-Drew did the Jags in in the next two games. The Titans started the season 5-2 and had signed Randy Moss to gear up for the stretch run. After that, the Titans won one game as QB Vince Young and coach Jeff Fisher had a falling out, and the team collapsed along with the Young-Fisher relationship. The Texans had the league's leading rusher in Arian Foster, but once again found new and exciting ways to lose close games. In spite of this and other problems, the Texans are bringing back head coach Gary Kubiak. Well, it's not something I would do, but maybe the sixth year is the charm for Kubiak, assuming that there is any football next season.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
2. Denver Broncos 2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. Oakland Raiders (8-8)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (4-12)
2. Denver Broncos 2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. Oakland Raiders (8-8)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (4-12)
Well, I was quite wrong about the Kansas City Chiefs, who won most of the games they were supposed to win to win the division. Well, it wasn't quite that simple, as RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, and OLB Tamba Hali put together great seasons for Kansas City on their way to the division crown. The Chargers had the second highest scoring team, a defense that allowed the fewest yards in the league, and still find themselves out of the playoffs, thanks in large part to some horrendous play on special teams and key players missing time due to injuries and holdouts, like TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. I did have the Raiders third, although to be honest I thought they would be 6-10 instead of 8-8. Somehow, the Raiders went 6-0 against AFC West opponents and became the only team in NFL history to go undefeated in their division and miss the playoffs. The Broncos weren't so good this year, and so coach Josh McDaniels was shown the door before the end of the year. But kudos to WR Brandon Lloyd, who came back from obscurity to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year with 1,448.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
2. New York Giants 2. New York Giants (10-6)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (6-10)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
2. New York Giants 2. New York Giants (10-6)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (6-10)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
The Cowboys let everybody down in the first half of the season, but did show signs of life with a 5-3 finish under interim coach Jason Garrett. Nevertheless, 2010 was a disappointment for Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. 2010 was also disappointing for the Giants, particularly their 4th quarter collapse against the Eagles and their 45-17 shellacking by Green Bay late in the season. As it turns out, I had the Giants pretty much exactly where they finished, but the Giants had a team talented enough to do much more. The Eagles found their quarterback, although it wasn't Kevin Kolb, but Michael Vick, who put together his best season and became the player everybody hoped he would after being drafted number one in 2001. As for the Redskins, it seems to happen every year, but once again their big name acquisition, in this case QB Donovan McNabb, disappoints and is unable to make the Redskins a winning team again. After over a decade of big name players underachieving in Washington, you would think that Daniel Snyder and company would try something else, but I'm sure they'll go out and get Steve Smith or somebody like that next year and repeat the cycle all over again.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Chicago Bears (11-5)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Green Bay Packers* (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Detroit Lions (6-10)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Green Bay Packers* (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Detroit Lions (6-10)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
At the beginning of the season, I felt that the Bears were too risky of a team to pick for the playoffs, as I figured that they would struggle on offense and finish 8-8 or something similar. Instead, the Bears won some close games, QB Jay Cutler and company improved enough on offense and now the Bears are the number two seed in the division. At least my choice for NFC Champions, the Packers, bailed me out and made the playoffs after wins against the Giants and the Bears in the season's final two weeks. However, despite their 10-6 record, only the Patriots had a bigger point differential then the Packers, who scored 148 more points then they allowed, so they could be a darkhorse in the postseason. The 2010 Minnesota Vikings season was so wacky and chaotic that there will probably be multiple books written about it. Their quarterback was involved in a sex scandal, they cut an All-Pro wide receiver three weeks after trading for him, they fired their coach after multiple reports leaked out about how little his team respected him, the roof on their stadium collapsed, and to top it all off, they won the NFL's first Tuesday game in 64 years behind a third-string quarterback. Other than that, it was business as usual for the Vikings, who at least got another strong season out of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions were 6-10, losing six games by five points or less, and finishing the season with a four game winning streak that will probably make them the chic sleeper pick in the next football season, whenever that will be. Seriously, if QB Matthew Stafford stays healthy and the Lions get a consistent running game, then the Lions might see postseason play for the first time this century.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints* (11-5)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints* (11-5)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Hey, I was right about the top two teams in this division, as the Falcons were able to stay healthy this season and win 13 games behind a mistake-free offense powered by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, and WR Roddy White. The Saints weren't quite as dominant as they were in 2009, but were still one of the best teams in the league, and QB Drew Brees, despite his higher interception total, is able to lead his team to victory in even the toughest circumstances, as we saw last Monday night in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won one game against a winning team this year (Sunday against the Saints) but nevertheless, it was quite a comeback season for the Bucs, who found their quarterback of the future in Josh Freeman (25 TDs, 6 INTs). The Panthers had the worst offense in the NFL, as their two 1,000 yard running backs from 2009, DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart, missed time due to injuries. Not to mention the issues Carolina had at quarterback, which were so bad that the Panthers were not able to use their best offensive player, WR Steve Smith, effectively. The Panthers were so inept that no offensive player scored more than three touchdowns. Predictably, the Panthers decided to fire their entire coaching staff, and will probably get rid of a lot of players as well.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
The worst division in the history of football, bar none. The Seahawks, to their credit, exceeded expectations by winning seven games and the division, which isn't too bad considering that most people felt they would be the worst team in football in 2010. The 49ers were a popular pick to win the division this year, but poor quarterback play and disputes with coach Mike Singletary did them in, and ultimately led to Singletary being fired last week. I felt that despite the loss of Kurt Warner, the Cardinals would be fine with QB Derek Anderson leading the way. Whoops. The Rams were the favorites to win the division as of Sunday Night behind a strong rookie season from QB Sam Bradford. But the Rams couldn't win against Seattle last night. If it makes them feel any better, at least the Rams made me look bad by finishing second instead of third, although not quite as bad as the Cardinals made me look.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
Well, My NFC Championship Game pick can't happen, as the Packers will have to play the Falcons in round two if they survive against the Eagles this week. I am surprised that all four of my 'final four' picks made the playoffs, so that's something. Since the Ravens and Packers are still alive, I'm going to keep my picks and go down with the ship, even if the Patriots and Steelers are probably better choices in the AFC, and the Falcons, Saints, and Eagles are better candidates to win the Super Bowl out of the NFC. Then again, the Ravens nearly beat the Patriots and have beaten the Steelers, while the Packers nearly beat the Falcons and beat the Eagles, so it wouldn't be too surprising if Baltimore and Green Bay were to make it through to postseason into the Super Bowl.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (312 completions in 475 attempts, 3,922 yards, 28 TD passes, 11 interceptions, 101.2 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (450-649, 4700, 33-17, 91.9)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (324-492, 3900, 36-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (357-571, 3705, 28-9, 91.0)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (357-541, 4710, 30-13, 101.8)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (13.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
At the end of the season, Brady is the obvious choice for MVP, as he led the league in touchdown passes, quarterback rating, and set a record for most consecutive passes without an interception (335) while leading the Patriots to a league best 14-2 record. With all due respect to Manning, Rodgers, and Eagles QB Michael Vick (233-372, 3018, 21-6, 100.2, 676 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs), it's really not even close. Ryan and Rivers also had solid seasons, but each player is a notch below Brady and Vick as well.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (283 attempts, 1298 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, 36 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (316, 1364, 11, 44 catches)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (90 catches, 1137 yards, 6 TDs)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (90 catches, 1137 yards, 6 TDs)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (327, 1616, 16, 66 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (115, 1389, 11)
4. Peterson
Peterson was good once again this year, but his team's poor performance doesn't help him any here. Same for Johnson, while Fitzgerald had no chance at this award due mainly to the poor play of his quarterbacks. Once again, despite strong seasons from Foster, White, Vick, and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (230, 1467, 5, 45 catches), this is basically Brady's award here as well, as no other player in the NFL had a better season on offense than Tom Brady.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (15.5 sacks, 2 fumble recovery, 1 TD)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (7 INTs, 49 tackles, 1 TD)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (101 tackles, 6 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5.5 sacks, 47 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (14.5 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware led the NFL in sacks, but normally players on losing teams don't win the Defensive POY award unless they are clearly dominant over the field. Matthews somewhat slumped in the second half (3 sacks in the final eight games), while Willis played well, but like Ware, played for a losing team. Revis was nowhere near the impact player he was in 2009. In my estimation, there are five main contenders for the award, Matthews, Ngata, Hali, Polamalu, and the Ravens S Ed Reed (8 INT in 10 games). Each player is probably deserving of the award, but if it were up to me, I'd give it to Polamalu, as his return from an injury filled 2009 season made all the difference for the Steelers. Without Polamalu, the Steelers defense is not nearly as good as it is with him, and in my opinion, no other player on defense has a bigger impact on his team's performance than Troy Polamalu. But, we'll see who wins the award at the end of the day.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (158 carries, 678 yards, 7 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (171, 555, 4, 58 catches, 487 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (354-590, 3512, 18-15, 76.5 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (45 catches, 561 yards, 6 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (65 catches, 964 yards, 11 TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Williams might have a strong case for the award, and Pouncey is the only offensive rookie to make the Pro Bowl, but Bradford had quite a rookie season for the Rams, setting a rookie record for most completions in the seasons and making the Rams passing game succeed despite losing his top two receivers to injury early in the year. Matthews and Best had their moments, while Bryant proved to be a top-notch playmaker before suffering an injury of his own, but Bradford is the clear favorite here.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (10 sacks, 48 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (4 INTs, 72 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 TD)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (59 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 INT)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (5 INTs, 60 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (4.5 sacks, 29 tackles)
This is another award that will not be a close vote, as Suh was everything the Lions hoped for and then some, giving the team a disruptive force in the middle of the line, and you could make the case that he is the best defensive tackle in the NFL right now (I'd say Ngata is the only one better than Suh, but still). Patriots CB Devin McCourty (7 INT), like Suh, will be going to the Pro Bowl, while both Thomas and Berry proved to be playmakers from the safety position for their respective teams. But I would be shocked beyond belief if Suh did not win this award.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
Of the four listed here, only one, John Fox, ended up being fired. Smith and Reid led their teams to division championships, so I'm pretty sure that they're safe, while it looks like the Jaguars will bring Jack Del Rio back for another season. As of this writing, there are six teams (Dallas, Minnesota, Denver, San Francisco, Carolina, and Cleveland) that fired their coaches, but there are whispers that Oakland's Tom Cable, Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis, and Tennessee's Jeff Fisher might also be on the chopping block.
Well, thanks for reading this rather long post, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Friday, November 12, 2010
The Canon Review 2010 NFL Preview Mid-Season Review
With every team now playing at least half of their schedule, I figured that now is a good time to look back at how my predictions for the 2010 NFL season stack up so far.
AFC East:(*=Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New York Jets (6-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New England Patriots (6-2)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (0-8)
Well, it looks like I was wrong about the Jets, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson has made a huge impact on the Jets' offense, and QB Mark Sanchez has cut down on his turnovers and has had more good games than bad. Defensively, the Jets aren't quite as dominant as last year's squad, but they still are one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Jets look as if they will battle the Patriots for the AFC East squad right down to the wire. The Patriots, in spite of trading WR Randy Moss, are still one of the top teams in the league. But last week's loss to Cleveland raised some questions about the team's once stout defense, which ranks 29th in the league after week 9. Miami just benched their starting quarterback, Chad Henne, as their offense has struggled to put up points. But their defense, led by OLB Cameron Wake, has been solid, and the Dolphins have survived a brutal schedule to remain at .500 thus far. The Dolphins' schedule in the second half is a bit easier, but they'll have a tough time catching the Patriots and Jets unless they can beat both teams on the road. The Bills have been called the best 0-8 team in NFL history, which still means that this season has been a disappointment. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick developing into a legit starting-caliber quarterback, all hope is not lost in Buffalo, and look for the Bills to get at least one victory, possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Overall, I'm sticking with the Pats as division champs, but the Jets will make the playoffs instead of the Dolphins.
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 2. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (3-5)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6)
My Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the season, the Ravens, still look strong, but they seem to make a habit of letting inferior teams hang around before finally closing them out. With S Ed Reed recently rejoining the defense that has gotten great years out of DT Haloti Ngata and ILB Ray Lewis, and QB Joe Flacco having an excellent year thus far on offense, the Ravens may be the favorites in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers went 3-1 without QB Ben Roethlisberger, thanks to a stifling defense and the excellent play of RB Rashard Mendenhall. With Roethlisberger back in tow, another Super Bowl run is definitely in reach for Pittsburgh. The Browns, in spite of a muddled quarterback situation, have played tough all year and can claim victories over the Saints and Patriots. With QB Colt McCoy solidifying the quarterback situation and RB Peyton Hillis playing at an All-Pro level, the Browns are capable of winning on any given Sunday, and even though a playoff birth is unlikely, they are a team not to be taken lightly. Despite WR Terrell Owens playing like the T.O. of old, the Bengals are one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, as QB Carson Palmer has played much worse than his reputation and the team has made a staggering amount of mental errors. Overall, I still have the Ravens and Steelers making the playoffs, with the Browns and Bengals switching places.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Tennessee Titans (5-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Houston Texans (4-4)
4. Houston Texans 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
The Colts have suffered a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, but as long as they have QB Peyton Manning, it would be foolish to count the Colts out. The Titans are tied with the Colts and with the teams playing each other twice in the second half, the Titans will control their own destiny in the AFC South. If WR Randy Moss can provide the Titans with another deep threat and open up the field for RB Chris Johnson, then the Titans will be a dangerous team, provided that QB Vince Young stays healthy. The Jaguars are a roller-coaster team, looking dominant one week and absolutely dreadful the next. Despite an improved TE Mercedes Lewis and the continued excellence of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, look for the Jaguars to continue their inconsistent play. After beating the Colts in week one, the Texans looked as if they turned the corner, but their defense has been hurt by injuries and poor play, hampering a top-notch offense powered by RB Arian Foster. In the end, I can't go against the Colts, and I see no reason to change my preseason picks.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
2. Denver Broncos 2. Oakland Raiders (5-4)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. San Diego Chargers (4-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (2-6)
The Chargers have a high-powered offense led by QB Philip Rivers and a solid defense, but have been historically bad on special teams, allowing three return touchdowns (including two in one game) and five blocked punts, half of the entire league's total of blocked punts thus far. If the Chargers can get their special teams under control, they could once again return to the playoffs. The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise thus far, behind a top-notch running game powered by RBs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a defense powered by the pass rushing of OLB Tamba Hali and solid play from ILB Derrick Johnson and rookie S Eric Berry. With an easy schedule remaining, the Chiefs have a good chance to win the division. The Raiders have won five games for the first time since 2002, as RB Darren McFadden has become the player the Raiders hoped he would be after picking him in the 2008 Draft. With a solid defense backed up by CB Nmandi Asomugha, the Raiders aren't going away anytime soon. The Broncos have gotten solid play out of QB Kyle Orton and CB Champ Bailey, but have struggled because they can't run the ball (2.9 ypc) and can't stop the run either (allowing 4.6 ypc). Unless they find a solution to those problems, 2010 will be a lost season for the Broncos while the other three teams fight for the division crown. At the end of the day, look for the Chargers to once again reign as division champions despite a tough challenge.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. New York Giants (6-2)
2. New York Giants 2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (4-4)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (1-7)
Looks like I was dead wrong about the Cowboys, as their dismal play has gotten their coach Wade Phillips fired. Their offense has been bad, and their defense has been worse. The Giants have gotten some talk thrown their way as being the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and with an offense powered by WR Hakeem Nicks and RB Ahmad Bradshaw complimented by the pass rushing exploits of DE Osi Umenyiora and the defense, the Giants have the look of a top-notch team. The Eagles' season may not have gone exactly as planned, but QB Michael Vick has revitalized his career and made the Eagles a dangerous team in the process. The Redskins are fortunate that they are 4-4, as QB Donovan McNabb has not played well and the team has allowed more yards than they've gained in every game thus far this season. With an opportunistic defense led by CB DeAngelo Hall and the return game exploits of Brandon Banks, the 'Skins should continue to hang close with most teams, but unless McNabb gets back on track, then this looks like a 7-9 team at best. In the end, look for the Giants to win the division, while the Eagles take one of the two wild-card spots.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Chicago Bears (5-3)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Detroit Lions (2-6)
The Packers have suffered a lot of injuries, but thanks to a breakout season from OLB Clay Matthews and a solid performance from QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack remain the favorites in the NFC North. When the Bears keep the turnovers down and protect QB Jay Cutler, they're a capable football team. Otherwise, the Bears can look as bad as any team in the NFL. The Vikings are a colossal mess, with rumors of coach Brad Childress's job security, the saga of WR Randy Moss, and the scandal involving QB Brett Favre contributing to a lost season in Minnesota, despite the best efforts of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions are 2-6, but have lost 5 games by fewer than eight points, and have actually outscored their opposition by 15 points. But with QB Matthew Stafford likely out for the season, the Lions may struggle to reach 5 wins, even with super rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The Packers are probably the only above average team in this division, so they should coast to a division title.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints (6-3)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (1-7)
The Falcons just became the first NFL team to reach seven wins this season, in part because that they played 3 days before everyone else this week, but nevertheless. With WR Roddy White having an All-Pro season and QB Matt Ryan maturing into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, the Falcons are living up to expectations. The Saints have had some bumps in the road and injuries have hampered their running game, but QB Drew Brees and company have an easier second half schedule and should compete for the NFC title. The Panthers have a decent defense, but their offense is historically bad, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Panthers didn't win a game for the rest of the season. Despite coach Raheem Morris's claims, the Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. They are a lot better than I picked them to be though, as QB Josh Freeman may be the most promising young quarterback in the NFL. The Bucs are going in the right direction, but the Falcons and Saints are just too tough for them to overcome. Look for Atlanta and New Orleans to make the playoffs.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. St. Louis Rams (4-4)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
This division is just as bad as most pundits predicted, and it is likely that the division winner will finish with a .500 or worse record. The Rams have received a huge boost from rookie QB Sam Bradford, and most of their recent high draft picks such as DE Chris Long are starting to play up to their draft positions. At the very least, the Rams have finally emerged from the doldrums of the past few years. The Seahawks got off to a hot start, but have been blown out in the last two games by the Raiders and Giants. If QB Matt Hasselbeck can come back from injury, the Seahawks should be a factor in the NFC West. If the Cardinals could get decent play from the quarterback position, then they would probably lead the division. Unfortunately for Arizona, neither Derek Anderson or Max Hall have proven to be the answer, and Arizona will spend the rest of the season struggling to find a consistent offense. The 49ers still have ILB Patrick Willis, RB Frank Gore, and not a whole lot else. However, other than a game in Green Bay, the 49ers have a rather easy schedule down the stretch, so it wouldn't be surprising if they get on a run. Ultimately, I really don't know who's going to win. I guess I'll go with the Rams since they seem to be the team that's the hottest right now.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
If there's one thing for certain in the NFL this season, it's that there is still no clear-cut favorites to win the Super Bowl. You can make a case for the Jets, Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Giants, and perhaps the Eagles to be the top team in the NFL. Since my Championship Game picks are all among the favorites, I see no reason to change course now, although I do have my doubts about the Colts being able to beat the Steelers or Patriots with all of their injuries.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (192 completions in 303 attempts, 2,300 yards, 15 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 90.6 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (228-351, 2478, 16-4, 96.1)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (166-261, 1826, 14-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (212-338, 2265, 16-5, 91.9)
Current Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (215-329, 2944. 19-8, 102.9)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (10.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
In spite of losing three of his top four receivers and his top running back due to injury, Manning still is playing at his usual level, making a star out of previous unknown TE Jacob Tamme and having the Colts on the top of their game. Brady also has taken a subpar supporting cast, on paper at least, and led the Patriots to a 6-2 record. Rodgers and Ryan are definitely very valuable to their teams, but it will be hard for them to get votes over Manning and Brady. Rivers is third in the NFL in QB rating and leads the league in touchdowns and yards. If the Chargers could block on punts worth a damn, Rivers would be the frontrunner for MVP Awards. In his second year, Matthews has become the biggest defensive impact player in the NFL, and a 20 sack season is not out of the question for the pass-rushing specialist.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (180 attempts, 857 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 26 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (178, 721, 8)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (42 catches, 510 yards, 4 TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (157, 864, 9 , 32 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (70, 934, 7)
4. Peterson
Although the Vikings have disappointed, Peterson has continued to shine and has even improved, as his fumble problems of last year have largely disappeared. Rodgers has been solid, but Rivers has performed at a much higher level. Johnson may not run for 2,500 yards this year, as he predicted, but 1,500 seems like a safe bet. Foster has come out of nowhere to become the most productive back in the NFL this season, while White has taken his game to another level to become the most productive receiver in the league. As for Fitzgerald, the poor quarterback play in Arizona have hampered his numbers, although he still remains a top-notch player.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (8 sacks, 1 fumble recovery)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 INTs, 32 tackles)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (54 tackles, 1 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Current Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5 sacks, 32 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (8 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware may have eight sacks, but other than that his play has been spotty at best, and the rest of the Cowboys' misfortunes won't help his cause. Polamalu's return has solidified the Steelers defense, although he may not have the individual numbers to get POY consideration, Willis has once again been spectacular for a struggling 49ers team, while Revis has struggled to stay on the field due to injury. Matthews is the odds-on favorite right now, but it would be unwise to ignore Ngata, as he is the best defensive lineman in the game. Hali has sparked the Chiefs' Renaissance, while Talib has proven to be an impact player for the surprising Bucs.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (87 carries, 382 yards, 2 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (107, 345, 4, 41 catches, 356 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (171-292, 1674, 11-8, 75.9 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (38 catches, 435 yards, 4 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (36 catches, 559 yards, TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Matthews and Best were supposed to carry the rushing load for their respective teams, and each player has for the most part, although the Lions would probably like Best to improve on his 3.2 ypc. Bradford has been everything the Rams could have hoped for, while Bryant has been one of the few positives in a season full of negative for Dallas. Williams, a fourth-round pick, has emerged as Josh Freeman's favorite target in Tampa Bay, while Pouncey has stepped into a starting role for the Steelers and excelled for the most part.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (2 INTs, 33 tackles, 2 sacks)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (26 tackles, 0.5 sack)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Current Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (4 INTs, 30 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (3.5 sacks, 14 tackles)
Suh, the second pick in the draft, has quickly become one of the most dominant lineman in the NFL from day one. Berry and Thomas have been key components in the improvements of the Chiefs and Seahawks, respectively. McClain has been decent for the Raiders thus far, while Morgan has made very little impact for the Titans thus far. Misi has given the Dolphins a second pass rushing threat besides Cameron Wake. Ultimately, Suh is going to run away with this award, even if he struggles with extra points.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
With the Panthers at 1-7, it's only a matter of time before Fox gets fired. The Bears may be 5-3 and the Jaguars may be 4-4, but both Smith and Del Rio could ultimately lose their jobs if their respective teams falter in the second half. Reid's Eagles have played well thus far, so he should be safe. As for other coaches in danger, the Cowboys' Wade Phillips has already lost his job, while the Vikings' Brad Childress seems to have lost the respect of his team. Other coaches that could be in trouble include the 49ers' Mike Singletary, the Browns' Eric Mangini, the Bengals' Marvin Lewis, and the Texans' Gary Kubiak.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
AFC East:(*=Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New York Jets (6-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New England Patriots (6-2)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (0-8)
Well, it looks like I was wrong about the Jets, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson has made a huge impact on the Jets' offense, and QB Mark Sanchez has cut down on his turnovers and has had more good games than bad. Defensively, the Jets aren't quite as dominant as last year's squad, but they still are one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Jets look as if they will battle the Patriots for the AFC East squad right down to the wire. The Patriots, in spite of trading WR Randy Moss, are still one of the top teams in the league. But last week's loss to Cleveland raised some questions about the team's once stout defense, which ranks 29th in the league after week 9. Miami just benched their starting quarterback, Chad Henne, as their offense has struggled to put up points. But their defense, led by OLB Cameron Wake, has been solid, and the Dolphins have survived a brutal schedule to remain at .500 thus far. The Dolphins' schedule in the second half is a bit easier, but they'll have a tough time catching the Patriots and Jets unless they can beat both teams on the road. The Bills have been called the best 0-8 team in NFL history, which still means that this season has been a disappointment. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick developing into a legit starting-caliber quarterback, all hope is not lost in Buffalo, and look for the Bills to get at least one victory, possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Overall, I'm sticking with the Pats as division champs, but the Jets will make the playoffs instead of the Dolphins.
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 2. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (3-5)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6)
My Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the season, the Ravens, still look strong, but they seem to make a habit of letting inferior teams hang around before finally closing them out. With S Ed Reed recently rejoining the defense that has gotten great years out of DT Haloti Ngata and ILB Ray Lewis, and QB Joe Flacco having an excellent year thus far on offense, the Ravens may be the favorites in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers went 3-1 without QB Ben Roethlisberger, thanks to a stifling defense and the excellent play of RB Rashard Mendenhall. With Roethlisberger back in tow, another Super Bowl run is definitely in reach for Pittsburgh. The Browns, in spite of a muddled quarterback situation, have played tough all year and can claim victories over the Saints and Patriots. With QB Colt McCoy solidifying the quarterback situation and RB Peyton Hillis playing at an All-Pro level, the Browns are capable of winning on any given Sunday, and even though a playoff birth is unlikely, they are a team not to be taken lightly. Despite WR Terrell Owens playing like the T.O. of old, the Bengals are one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, as QB Carson Palmer has played much worse than his reputation and the team has made a staggering amount of mental errors. Overall, I still have the Ravens and Steelers making the playoffs, with the Browns and Bengals switching places.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Tennessee Titans (5-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Houston Texans (4-4)
4. Houston Texans 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
The Colts have suffered a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, but as long as they have QB Peyton Manning, it would be foolish to count the Colts out. The Titans are tied with the Colts and with the teams playing each other twice in the second half, the Titans will control their own destiny in the AFC South. If WR Randy Moss can provide the Titans with another deep threat and open up the field for RB Chris Johnson, then the Titans will be a dangerous team, provided that QB Vince Young stays healthy. The Jaguars are a roller-coaster team, looking dominant one week and absolutely dreadful the next. Despite an improved TE Mercedes Lewis and the continued excellence of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, look for the Jaguars to continue their inconsistent play. After beating the Colts in week one, the Texans looked as if they turned the corner, but their defense has been hurt by injuries and poor play, hampering a top-notch offense powered by RB Arian Foster. In the end, I can't go against the Colts, and I see no reason to change my preseason picks.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
2. Denver Broncos 2. Oakland Raiders (5-4)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. San Diego Chargers (4-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (2-6)
The Chargers have a high-powered offense led by QB Philip Rivers and a solid defense, but have been historically bad on special teams, allowing three return touchdowns (including two in one game) and five blocked punts, half of the entire league's total of blocked punts thus far. If the Chargers can get their special teams under control, they could once again return to the playoffs. The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise thus far, behind a top-notch running game powered by RBs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a defense powered by the pass rushing of OLB Tamba Hali and solid play from ILB Derrick Johnson and rookie S Eric Berry. With an easy schedule remaining, the Chiefs have a good chance to win the division. The Raiders have won five games for the first time since 2002, as RB Darren McFadden has become the player the Raiders hoped he would be after picking him in the 2008 Draft. With a solid defense backed up by CB Nmandi Asomugha, the Raiders aren't going away anytime soon. The Broncos have gotten solid play out of QB Kyle Orton and CB Champ Bailey, but have struggled because they can't run the ball (2.9 ypc) and can't stop the run either (allowing 4.6 ypc). Unless they find a solution to those problems, 2010 will be a lost season for the Broncos while the other three teams fight for the division crown. At the end of the day, look for the Chargers to once again reign as division champions despite a tough challenge.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. New York Giants (6-2)
2. New York Giants 2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (4-4)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (1-7)
Looks like I was dead wrong about the Cowboys, as their dismal play has gotten their coach Wade Phillips fired. Their offense has been bad, and their defense has been worse. The Giants have gotten some talk thrown their way as being the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and with an offense powered by WR Hakeem Nicks and RB Ahmad Bradshaw complimented by the pass rushing exploits of DE Osi Umenyiora and the defense, the Giants have the look of a top-notch team. The Eagles' season may not have gone exactly as planned, but QB Michael Vick has revitalized his career and made the Eagles a dangerous team in the process. The Redskins are fortunate that they are 4-4, as QB Donovan McNabb has not played well and the team has allowed more yards than they've gained in every game thus far this season. With an opportunistic defense led by CB DeAngelo Hall and the return game exploits of Brandon Banks, the 'Skins should continue to hang close with most teams, but unless McNabb gets back on track, then this looks like a 7-9 team at best. In the end, look for the Giants to win the division, while the Eagles take one of the two wild-card spots.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Chicago Bears (5-3)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Detroit Lions (2-6)
The Packers have suffered a lot of injuries, but thanks to a breakout season from OLB Clay Matthews and a solid performance from QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack remain the favorites in the NFC North. When the Bears keep the turnovers down and protect QB Jay Cutler, they're a capable football team. Otherwise, the Bears can look as bad as any team in the NFL. The Vikings are a colossal mess, with rumors of coach Brad Childress's job security, the saga of WR Randy Moss, and the scandal involving QB Brett Favre contributing to a lost season in Minnesota, despite the best efforts of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions are 2-6, but have lost 5 games by fewer than eight points, and have actually outscored their opposition by 15 points. But with QB Matthew Stafford likely out for the season, the Lions may struggle to reach 5 wins, even with super rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The Packers are probably the only above average team in this division, so they should coast to a division title.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints (6-3)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (1-7)
The Falcons just became the first NFL team to reach seven wins this season, in part because that they played 3 days before everyone else this week, but nevertheless. With WR Roddy White having an All-Pro season and QB Matt Ryan maturing into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, the Falcons are living up to expectations. The Saints have had some bumps in the road and injuries have hampered their running game, but QB Drew Brees and company have an easier second half schedule and should compete for the NFC title. The Panthers have a decent defense, but their offense is historically bad, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Panthers didn't win a game for the rest of the season. Despite coach Raheem Morris's claims, the Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. They are a lot better than I picked them to be though, as QB Josh Freeman may be the most promising young quarterback in the NFL. The Bucs are going in the right direction, but the Falcons and Saints are just too tough for them to overcome. Look for Atlanta and New Orleans to make the playoffs.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. St. Louis Rams (4-4)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
This division is just as bad as most pundits predicted, and it is likely that the division winner will finish with a .500 or worse record. The Rams have received a huge boost from rookie QB Sam Bradford, and most of their recent high draft picks such as DE Chris Long are starting to play up to their draft positions. At the very least, the Rams have finally emerged from the doldrums of the past few years. The Seahawks got off to a hot start, but have been blown out in the last two games by the Raiders and Giants. If QB Matt Hasselbeck can come back from injury, the Seahawks should be a factor in the NFC West. If the Cardinals could get decent play from the quarterback position, then they would probably lead the division. Unfortunately for Arizona, neither Derek Anderson or Max Hall have proven to be the answer, and Arizona will spend the rest of the season struggling to find a consistent offense. The 49ers still have ILB Patrick Willis, RB Frank Gore, and not a whole lot else. However, other than a game in Green Bay, the 49ers have a rather easy schedule down the stretch, so it wouldn't be surprising if they get on a run. Ultimately, I really don't know who's going to win. I guess I'll go with the Rams since they seem to be the team that's the hottest right now.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
If there's one thing for certain in the NFL this season, it's that there is still no clear-cut favorites to win the Super Bowl. You can make a case for the Jets, Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Giants, and perhaps the Eagles to be the top team in the NFL. Since my Championship Game picks are all among the favorites, I see no reason to change course now, although I do have my doubts about the Colts being able to beat the Steelers or Patriots with all of their injuries.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (192 completions in 303 attempts, 2,300 yards, 15 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 90.6 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (228-351, 2478, 16-4, 96.1)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (166-261, 1826, 14-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (212-338, 2265, 16-5, 91.9)
Current Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (215-329, 2944. 19-8, 102.9)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (10.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
In spite of losing three of his top four receivers and his top running back due to injury, Manning still is playing at his usual level, making a star out of previous unknown TE Jacob Tamme and having the Colts on the top of their game. Brady also has taken a subpar supporting cast, on paper at least, and led the Patriots to a 6-2 record. Rodgers and Ryan are definitely very valuable to their teams, but it will be hard for them to get votes over Manning and Brady. Rivers is third in the NFL in QB rating and leads the league in touchdowns and yards. If the Chargers could block on punts worth a damn, Rivers would be the frontrunner for MVP Awards. In his second year, Matthews has become the biggest defensive impact player in the NFL, and a 20 sack season is not out of the question for the pass-rushing specialist.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (180 attempts, 857 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 26 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (178, 721, 8)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (42 catches, 510 yards, 4 TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (157, 864, 9 , 32 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (70, 934, 7)
4. Peterson
Although the Vikings have disappointed, Peterson has continued to shine and has even improved, as his fumble problems of last year have largely disappeared. Rodgers has been solid, but Rivers has performed at a much higher level. Johnson may not run for 2,500 yards this year, as he predicted, but 1,500 seems like a safe bet. Foster has come out of nowhere to become the most productive back in the NFL this season, while White has taken his game to another level to become the most productive receiver in the league. As for Fitzgerald, the poor quarterback play in Arizona have hampered his numbers, although he still remains a top-notch player.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (8 sacks, 1 fumble recovery)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 INTs, 32 tackles)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (54 tackles, 1 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Current Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5 sacks, 32 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (8 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware may have eight sacks, but other than that his play has been spotty at best, and the rest of the Cowboys' misfortunes won't help his cause. Polamalu's return has solidified the Steelers defense, although he may not have the individual numbers to get POY consideration, Willis has once again been spectacular for a struggling 49ers team, while Revis has struggled to stay on the field due to injury. Matthews is the odds-on favorite right now, but it would be unwise to ignore Ngata, as he is the best defensive lineman in the game. Hali has sparked the Chiefs' Renaissance, while Talib has proven to be an impact player for the surprising Bucs.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (87 carries, 382 yards, 2 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (107, 345, 4, 41 catches, 356 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (171-292, 1674, 11-8, 75.9 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (38 catches, 435 yards, 4 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (36 catches, 559 yards, TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Matthews and Best were supposed to carry the rushing load for their respective teams, and each player has for the most part, although the Lions would probably like Best to improve on his 3.2 ypc. Bradford has been everything the Rams could have hoped for, while Bryant has been one of the few positives in a season full of negative for Dallas. Williams, a fourth-round pick, has emerged as Josh Freeman's favorite target in Tampa Bay, while Pouncey has stepped into a starting role for the Steelers and excelled for the most part.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (2 INTs, 33 tackles, 2 sacks)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (26 tackles, 0.5 sack)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Current Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (4 INTs, 30 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (3.5 sacks, 14 tackles)
Suh, the second pick in the draft, has quickly become one of the most dominant lineman in the NFL from day one. Berry and Thomas have been key components in the improvements of the Chiefs and Seahawks, respectively. McClain has been decent for the Raiders thus far, while Morgan has made very little impact for the Titans thus far. Misi has given the Dolphins a second pass rushing threat besides Cameron Wake. Ultimately, Suh is going to run away with this award, even if he struggles with extra points.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
With the Panthers at 1-7, it's only a matter of time before Fox gets fired. The Bears may be 5-3 and the Jaguars may be 4-4, but both Smith and Del Rio could ultimately lose their jobs if their respective teams falter in the second half. Reid's Eagles have played well thus far, so he should be safe. As for other coaches in danger, the Cowboys' Wade Phillips has already lost his job, while the Vikings' Brad Childress seems to have lost the respect of his team. Other coaches that could be in trouble include the 49ers' Mike Singletary, the Browns' Eric Mangini, the Bengals' Marvin Lewis, and the Texans' Gary Kubiak.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
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