Last Sunday, Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton made history in his first NFL start, passing for 422 yards in his first NFL game. Well, Newton's excellent performance got me to thinking about the best rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, and because I can, I decided to make a list of the top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks in the history of professional football. One of the things that I noticed while researching this list is that now more than ever, teams are relying on rookie quarterbacks a lot more often than they did 20 or 30 years ago. Sure, you get a few high draft picks like Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers that sit for a season or two, but in today's NFL, if a team spends a high draft pick and a whole lot of money on a quarterback, then chances are that that player is going to play. This year alone, both Newton and Cincinnatti's Andy Dalton started week one at QB, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Tennessee's Jake Locker, Minnesota's Christian Ponder, and especially Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert got quite a few starts at quarterback this year. Consider this, from 2007-2010, there were nine rookie quarterbacks that started at least half of their team's games, which is almost as much as the number of rookie QBs that accomplished the same feat in the 1990s (11) and 1980s (10). What does this have to do with anything, you ask? Well, nothing really, I just found it kind of interesting. But don't be surprised if as a result, this list skews towards the more recent quarterbacks. Anyway, here is The Canon Review's Top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks.
Honorable Mention:
Dennis Shaw, 1970, and Vince Young, 2006: Both players did win the Rookie of the Year award during their first seasons, but neither player had a season that I'd say was great. Shaw, a former Buffalo Bill, was sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 2,507. However, his TD/INT ratio wasn't too hot (10/20) and his quarterback rating was a partly 65.3. Young may have had an 8-5 record as a starter, and he did add a lot of value with his running ability (552 yards, seven TDs). However, his performance as a passer (51.5 completion percentage, 12/13 TD/INT ratio), left something to be desired.
Peyton Manning, 1998: Guess who holds the NFL rookie records for passing yards and touchdown passes by a rookie? Quite obviously, it is Peyton Manning. So why in the world would I leave Peyton off a list of the top rookie quarterbacks? Well, despite his high yardage (3,739) and touchdown (26) totals, Manning wasn't quite the Peyton Manning that we would see on the field for the next decade or so. In 1998, Manning also threw for 28 interceptions, which was a factor in the Colts going 3-13 that year. So, because of his high interception total and somewhat pedestrian QB rating (71.2), Manning just misses the cut.
10. Sam Bradford, 2010, St. Louis Rams
Coming out of Oklahoma, there were some questions about how quickly Bradford would adjust to the NFL, especially since he was recovering from a severe shoulder injury. But Bradford showed to be a quick learner, and ended up starting all 16 games for the Rams last year and nearly leading them to a division title. In his rookie season, Bradford threw for 3,512 yards and set a new rookie record for most completions in a season with 354 on his way to winning the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Bradford also became the first rookie quarterback to win consecutive Rookie of the Month awards (October and November) and set a rookie record for most consecutive passes thrown without an interception (169). All in all, a rather successful rookie season.
9. Charle Batch, 1998, Detroit Lions
Batch was the third quarterback selected in the 1998 Draft behind Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, but it was Batch that was the most effective rookie quarterback that year. In 12 starts, Batch threw for 2,178 yards, had a nearly 2-1 TD/INT ratio(11-6), and his 83.5 QB rating is the sixth highest among NFL rookies with over 200 attempts. Batch also contributed to the Lions' cause with his feet, running for 229 yards and a touchdown. While Batch may not have had the career that Peyton Manning has had, at least he can say that he had the better rookie season.
8. Greg Cook, 1969, Cincinnati Bengals
In 1969, the Bengals thought they drafted their quarterback of the future when they made Cook their first round selection. At first, Cook did nothing to make the Bengals believe otherwise, as he won his first three starts. However, an injury to Cook's shoulder knocked him out of action for a few weeks, and with Cook out, the Bengals tumbled to the basement of the AFL Western Division. Even so, it was still a successful season for Cook, as he led the AFL in passer rating (88.3) and in completion percentage (53.8) despite playing most of the season with a torn rotator cuff. Cook was the AFL Rookie of the Year, but his shoulder injury was so severe that he never could regain his previous form, and only threw two more passes after his rookie season. Today, we can only speculate about what might have been had Greg Cook stayed healthy, but there's no doubt that he had a heck of a first season.
7. Otto Graham, 1946, Cleveland Browns
Graham served in the Coast Guard after starring at Northwestern, and didn't make his debut until 1946, where he was the quarterback for the AAFC's Cleveland Browns. Graham and the Browns took the new league by storm, as the Browns went 12-2 and won the first of their four straight AAFC League Championships. For his part, Graham was quite successful, finishing second in the league in passing yards (1,886) and first in touchdowns (17). His QB rating of 112.1 would have led the league if he had enough passing attempts, and would also be the fifth highest single-season total in pro football history. Yes, it was quite a year for Graham, but he does get penalized because the level of competition he was playing against wasn't exactly the strongest.
6. Charlie Conerly, 1948, New York Giants
Conerly was an All-American player at Ole Miss and the 1947 SEC Player of the Year, so the Giants had high hopes for their new quarterback. In his first season, Conerly not only met those hopes, but exceeded them, finishing 2nd in the NFL in completions (162), passing yards (2,175), touchdown passes (22), and QB rating (84.0). Not only did Conerly excel as a passer, he was also a dangerous running threat, running for five touchdowns. Even though he played over 50 years ago, only one other rookie has more touchdown passes than Conerly's 22. Despite Conerly's excellence, the Giants went 4-8, but Conerly still had a rookie season for the ages.
5. Joe Flacco, 2008, Baltimore Ravens
Coming out of 1-AA Delaware, Flacco was picked in the first round by the Ravens in the 2008 draft. In a surprising move, the Ravens made Flacco their opening game starter, and Flacco repaid the Ravens' confidence in him by leading them to victory in his first two starts. At the end of the season, the Ravens finished with an 11-5 record, and Flacco started each game, throwing for 2,971 and 14 touchdowns. Flacco was an efficient quarterback who completed 60 percent of his passes, and he finished the season with a QB rating of 80.3. The Ravens made the playoffs that year, and Flacco made history by becoming the first rookie quarterback to win two playoff games, both of which were on the road. While Flacco wasn't spectacular in each game, he was careful with the ball (0 turnovers) and led the Ravens down the field on their game winning drive against the Tennessee Titans in the second round. Yes, Flacco's Ravens were eventually beaten by the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, but it was quite an excellent first season for Flacco.
4. Matt Ryan, 2008, Atlanta Falcons
Despite Flacco's excellent rookie season, it was Matt Ryan that would win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2008, and for good reason. The Falcons made Ryan the starter from day one, hoping that he would at least help to improve their 3-13 mark from last year. On his first pass, Ryan established himself as a player to watch, as he threw a touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins on a stunned Detroit Lions defense. From that moment on, Ryan was the man behind center in Atlanta, and he led the Falcons to a surprising 11-5 record and a spot in the postseason. Ryan also became the second rookie to throw for over 3,000 yards in a season (3,440) and put up very nice numbers in his rookie season (61.1 completion percentage, 16/11 TD/INT, 87.7 rating). Even though the Falcons lost their playoff game, Ryan made more history by completing 26 passes, a record for NFL rookies.
3. Bob Waterfield, 1945, Cleveland Rams
At
first glance, Waterfield's stats do not appear very impressive. He threw
more interceptions than touchdowns (17-14), his completion percentage
was 51.0%, and his QB rating of 72.4 doesn't look like anything to write
home about. But 1945 wasn't exactly a banner year for passing, so
Waterfield did quite well compared to his peers. He finished third in
completions (89) and in passing yards (1,609), and his 14 touchdowns
were tied for the most in the league. At the end of the season,
Waterfield was named to the NFL All-Pro team, and led his Cleveland Rams
to victory over the Washington Redskins in the NFL Championship game,
making Waterfield the last rookie quarterback to lead his team to a
title in the NFL, and is also the only rookie QB to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.
2. Dan Marino, 1983, Miami Dolphins
Marino was the sixth quarterback taken in the first round of the 1983 NFL Draft when Miami picked him with the 27th pick. While the rest of his peers were either struggling or playing in the USFL, Marino thrived in his rookie year after taking over for David Woodley early in the season. This despite the fact that Woodley had led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl the prior season. But the Dolphins not only didn't miss a beat with Marino, they added a whole new element to their team, as Marino proved to be a much more skilled quarterback. At the end of the year, Marino led the Dolphins to a 12-4 record and a division title while throwing for 2,210 yards and 20 touchdowns while only throwing six interceptions. His 96.0 rating was third best in the league, and became the first rookie quarterback to be named the starter for the Pro Bowl.
1. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Pittsburgh Steelers
The number one quarterbacks on our list started the 2004 season as a backup to Tommy Maddox. But a week two injury to Maddox forced Roethlisberger into the lineup, and Roethlisberger never left. In fact, the Steelers went 13-0 with Roethlisberger as a starter that year, and finished the season with a franchise best 15-1 record, and a large part of that was the play of their rookie quarterback. Roethlisberger set rookie records for completion percentage (66.4) and quarterback rating (98.1), and finished in the NFL in both categories. He also passed for 2,621 and 17 touchdowns, while only throwing 11 interceptions. Not only that, but Roethlisberger proved to be a clutch performer, leading his team on five game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger and his Steelers went all the way to the AFC Championship Game before falling to the Patriots. Nevertheless, it was a great year for Roethlisberger, who was named to the Pro Bowl and also won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Well, thanks for reading The Canon Review's list of the Top 10 Rookie Quarterbacks of All Time. Whether you agree or disagree, feel free to express your opinion on this article by leaving a comment on the blog. Also, if you have any requests for future posts, then send those along to me via e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Showing posts with label Sam Bradford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sam Bradford. Show all posts
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Your 2010 Canon Review Pro Football Preview End of Season Review
2010 was quite possibly the wildest and wackiest season the NFL has ever had. Well, except for the 1987 season where teams put out replacement players due to the strike, but that's another story. This season had all sorts of unexpected occurrences, from the collapse of the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, to a team with a losing record, the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks, winning their division and becoming the first losing team to ever make the postseason. This season saw the redemption of Michael Vick, the reestablishment of Tom Brady as the NFL's best quarterback, and saw Donovan McNabb get traded to the Redskins, sign a multi-million dollar contract extension the same night his team gets crushed by his former team, the Eagles, and eventually sees coach Mike Shanahan bench McNabb for the immortal Rex Grossman. Also, 2010 was (hopefully) the final season of Brett Favre, who proved two things, that even he can't play at a high level forever, and that it's not a good idea to send pictures of your junk to female team employees. We also saw the saga of Randy Moss, who in a matter of weeks managed to complain about his current team (the Patriots) not offering him a contract extension, get traded to the Vikings, come back to play the Patriots and then praise the Patriots organization during his entire post-game press conference, complain about the team's catering to such an extent that the Vikings cut him, and sign with the Titans where he does absolutely nothing (6 catches for 80 yards).. Those events are only the tip of the iceberg in a crazy season that will probably be followed by the craziest offeseaon in recent memory, as the owners and players union try to work out a new collective bargaining agreement which has been greatly complicated due to commissioner Roger Goodell's insistence to extend the regular season to 18 games, among other factors, and if an agreement is not reached, well we could be without pro football next year. But that's next year, instead it's time for me to take a look back at my picks at the beginning of this season and see just how good, or bad, I was able to prognosticate the 2010 NFL season. If you want, you can take a look at my original picks here, and my midseason review here.
AFC East (* - Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New York Jets* (11-5)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Although I was correct about New England, I'd be lying if I said I expected the Patriots to dominate to the extent that they have this season. QB Tom Brady has the Patriots offense firing on all cylinders, and unheralded players such as RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and TE Rob Gronkowski have developed into dangerous offensive players. After finishing the season on an eight game winning streak, the Patriots are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. I was wrong about the Jets, as the team that I thought was overrated proved me wrong and won 11 games to earn a spot in the playoffs. A Super Bowl appearance seems unlikely for New York, but Rex Ryan and his boys are hungry, and will be looking to snack on their playoff foes. The Dolphins has a solid defense, but their offense wasn't so good, as they scored the third fewest points in the NFL this year. At midseason, some people, including me, were afraid that the Bills would go the entire season without a win. But those fears were unfounded, as the Bills went 4-4 in the second half, and were a dropped pass away from beating the playoff bound Steelers. Maybe next year will be the year that the Bills get out of the cellar in back into playoff contention. After all, if the Raiders, Chiefs, and Bucs can drastically improve, then why not the Bills.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers* 2. Baltimore Ravens* (12-4)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
Well, I had the top two teams making the playoffs, but just in the wrong order. The Steelers, despite missing QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games of the season, cruised to a 12-4 record and a first round bye, thanks in large part due to their top ranked defense and running game. Meanwhile, the Ravens also went 12-4 behind their third ranked defense, but could have gone 15-1 had they been able to close out games against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New England. To be fair, those teams had the three best records in the NFL, so the Ravens have at least proven they can hang with anybody in the league. Here's hoping for a third matchup between the Ravens and Steelers in the playoffs. I didn't think too highly of the Bengals at the beginning of the season, but I didn't think they would sink from 11 wins to 4 this year. It might be time to make massive changes in Cincinnati this offseason. The Browns were what we thought they were, although to their credit, they are only one of two teams to beat the Patriots this year. That wasn't enough to save coach Eric Mangini's job, but at least the Browns showed some glimmers of hope this season.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Houston Texans 4. Houston Texans (6-10)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Houston Texans 4. Houston Texans (6-10)
The Colts may have been banged up this year, but QB Peyton Manning and his crew survived enough injuries to put up a ten win season and win another division title. Of course, it helped that the other three teams had issues of their own. The Jaguars went 8-8 after a three game losing streak at the end of the season. In week 15, the Jaguars could have clinched the division with a win against the Colts, but fell, and then injuries to players such as RB Maurice Jones-Drew did the Jags in in the next two games. The Titans started the season 5-2 and had signed Randy Moss to gear up for the stretch run. After that, the Titans won one game as QB Vince Young and coach Jeff Fisher had a falling out, and the team collapsed along with the Young-Fisher relationship. The Texans had the league's leading rusher in Arian Foster, but once again found new and exciting ways to lose close games. In spite of this and other problems, the Texans are bringing back head coach Gary Kubiak. Well, it's not something I would do, but maybe the sixth year is the charm for Kubiak, assuming that there is any football next season.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
2. Denver Broncos 2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. Oakland Raiders (8-8)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (4-12)
2. Denver Broncos 2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. Oakland Raiders (8-8)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (4-12)
Well, I was quite wrong about the Kansas City Chiefs, who won most of the games they were supposed to win to win the division. Well, it wasn't quite that simple, as RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, and OLB Tamba Hali put together great seasons for Kansas City on their way to the division crown. The Chargers had the second highest scoring team, a defense that allowed the fewest yards in the league, and still find themselves out of the playoffs, thanks in large part to some horrendous play on special teams and key players missing time due to injuries and holdouts, like TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. I did have the Raiders third, although to be honest I thought they would be 6-10 instead of 8-8. Somehow, the Raiders went 6-0 against AFC West opponents and became the only team in NFL history to go undefeated in their division and miss the playoffs. The Broncos weren't so good this year, and so coach Josh McDaniels was shown the door before the end of the year. But kudos to WR Brandon Lloyd, who came back from obscurity to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year with 1,448.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
2. New York Giants 2. New York Giants (10-6)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (6-10)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
2. New York Giants 2. New York Giants (10-6)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (6-10)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
The Cowboys let everybody down in the first half of the season, but did show signs of life with a 5-3 finish under interim coach Jason Garrett. Nevertheless, 2010 was a disappointment for Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. 2010 was also disappointing for the Giants, particularly their 4th quarter collapse against the Eagles and their 45-17 shellacking by Green Bay late in the season. As it turns out, I had the Giants pretty much exactly where they finished, but the Giants had a team talented enough to do much more. The Eagles found their quarterback, although it wasn't Kevin Kolb, but Michael Vick, who put together his best season and became the player everybody hoped he would after being drafted number one in 2001. As for the Redskins, it seems to happen every year, but once again their big name acquisition, in this case QB Donovan McNabb, disappoints and is unable to make the Redskins a winning team again. After over a decade of big name players underachieving in Washington, you would think that Daniel Snyder and company would try something else, but I'm sure they'll go out and get Steve Smith or somebody like that next year and repeat the cycle all over again.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Chicago Bears (11-5)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Green Bay Packers* (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Detroit Lions (6-10)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Green Bay Packers* (10-6)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Detroit Lions (6-10)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
At the beginning of the season, I felt that the Bears were too risky of a team to pick for the playoffs, as I figured that they would struggle on offense and finish 8-8 or something similar. Instead, the Bears won some close games, QB Jay Cutler and company improved enough on offense and now the Bears are the number two seed in the division. At least my choice for NFC Champions, the Packers, bailed me out and made the playoffs after wins against the Giants and the Bears in the season's final two weeks. However, despite their 10-6 record, only the Patriots had a bigger point differential then the Packers, who scored 148 more points then they allowed, so they could be a darkhorse in the postseason. The 2010 Minnesota Vikings season was so wacky and chaotic that there will probably be multiple books written about it. Their quarterback was involved in a sex scandal, they cut an All-Pro wide receiver three weeks after trading for him, they fired their coach after multiple reports leaked out about how little his team respected him, the roof on their stadium collapsed, and to top it all off, they won the NFL's first Tuesday game in 64 years behind a third-string quarterback. Other than that, it was business as usual for the Vikings, who at least got another strong season out of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions were 6-10, losing six games by five points or less, and finishing the season with a four game winning streak that will probably make them the chic sleeper pick in the next football season, whenever that will be. Seriously, if QB Matthew Stafford stays healthy and the Lions get a consistent running game, then the Lions might see postseason play for the first time this century.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints* (11-5)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints* (11-5)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Hey, I was right about the top two teams in this division, as the Falcons were able to stay healthy this season and win 13 games behind a mistake-free offense powered by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, and WR Roddy White. The Saints weren't quite as dominant as they were in 2009, but were still one of the best teams in the league, and QB Drew Brees, despite his higher interception total, is able to lead his team to victory in even the toughest circumstances, as we saw last Monday night in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won one game against a winning team this year (Sunday against the Saints) but nevertheless, it was quite a comeback season for the Bucs, who found their quarterback of the future in Josh Freeman (25 TDs, 6 INTs). The Panthers had the worst offense in the NFL, as their two 1,000 yard running backs from 2009, DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart, missed time due to injuries. Not to mention the issues Carolina had at quarterback, which were so bad that the Panthers were not able to use their best offensive player, WR Steve Smith, effectively. The Panthers were so inept that no offensive player scored more than three touchdowns. Predictably, the Panthers decided to fire their entire coaching staff, and will probably get rid of a lot of players as well.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
The worst division in the history of football, bar none. The Seahawks, to their credit, exceeded expectations by winning seven games and the division, which isn't too bad considering that most people felt they would be the worst team in football in 2010. The 49ers were a popular pick to win the division this year, but poor quarterback play and disputes with coach Mike Singletary did them in, and ultimately led to Singletary being fired last week. I felt that despite the loss of Kurt Warner, the Cardinals would be fine with QB Derek Anderson leading the way. Whoops. The Rams were the favorites to win the division as of Sunday Night behind a strong rookie season from QB Sam Bradford. But the Rams couldn't win against Seattle last night. If it makes them feel any better, at least the Rams made me look bad by finishing second instead of third, although not quite as bad as the Cardinals made me look.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
Well, My NFC Championship Game pick can't happen, as the Packers will have to play the Falcons in round two if they survive against the Eagles this week. I am surprised that all four of my 'final four' picks made the playoffs, so that's something. Since the Ravens and Packers are still alive, I'm going to keep my picks and go down with the ship, even if the Patriots and Steelers are probably better choices in the AFC, and the Falcons, Saints, and Eagles are better candidates to win the Super Bowl out of the NFC. Then again, the Ravens nearly beat the Patriots and have beaten the Steelers, while the Packers nearly beat the Falcons and beat the Eagles, so it wouldn't be too surprising if Baltimore and Green Bay were to make it through to postseason into the Super Bowl.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (312 completions in 475 attempts, 3,922 yards, 28 TD passes, 11 interceptions, 101.2 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (450-649, 4700, 33-17, 91.9)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (324-492, 3900, 36-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (357-571, 3705, 28-9, 91.0)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (357-541, 4710, 30-13, 101.8)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (13.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
At the end of the season, Brady is the obvious choice for MVP, as he led the league in touchdown passes, quarterback rating, and set a record for most consecutive passes without an interception (335) while leading the Patriots to a league best 14-2 record. With all due respect to Manning, Rodgers, and Eagles QB Michael Vick (233-372, 3018, 21-6, 100.2, 676 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs), it's really not even close. Ryan and Rivers also had solid seasons, but each player is a notch below Brady and Vick as well.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (283 attempts, 1298 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, 36 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (316, 1364, 11, 44 catches)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (90 catches, 1137 yards, 6 TDs)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (90 catches, 1137 yards, 6 TDs)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (327, 1616, 16, 66 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (115, 1389, 11)
4. Peterson
Peterson was good once again this year, but his team's poor performance doesn't help him any here. Same for Johnson, while Fitzgerald had no chance at this award due mainly to the poor play of his quarterbacks. Once again, despite strong seasons from Foster, White, Vick, and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (230, 1467, 5, 45 catches), this is basically Brady's award here as well, as no other player in the NFL had a better season on offense than Tom Brady.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (15.5 sacks, 2 fumble recovery, 1 TD)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (7 INTs, 49 tackles, 1 TD)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (101 tackles, 6 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5.5 sacks, 47 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (14.5 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware led the NFL in sacks, but normally players on losing teams don't win the Defensive POY award unless they are clearly dominant over the field. Matthews somewhat slumped in the second half (3 sacks in the final eight games), while Willis played well, but like Ware, played for a losing team. Revis was nowhere near the impact player he was in 2009. In my estimation, there are five main contenders for the award, Matthews, Ngata, Hali, Polamalu, and the Ravens S Ed Reed (8 INT in 10 games). Each player is probably deserving of the award, but if it were up to me, I'd give it to Polamalu, as his return from an injury filled 2009 season made all the difference for the Steelers. Without Polamalu, the Steelers defense is not nearly as good as it is with him, and in my opinion, no other player on defense has a bigger impact on his team's performance than Troy Polamalu. But, we'll see who wins the award at the end of the day.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (158 carries, 678 yards, 7 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (171, 555, 4, 58 catches, 487 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (354-590, 3512, 18-15, 76.5 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (45 catches, 561 yards, 6 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (65 catches, 964 yards, 11 TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Williams might have a strong case for the award, and Pouncey is the only offensive rookie to make the Pro Bowl, but Bradford had quite a rookie season for the Rams, setting a rookie record for most completions in the seasons and making the Rams passing game succeed despite losing his top two receivers to injury early in the year. Matthews and Best had their moments, while Bryant proved to be a top-notch playmaker before suffering an injury of his own, but Bradford is the clear favorite here.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (10 sacks, 48 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (4 INTs, 72 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 TD)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (59 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 INT)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Midseason Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (5 INTs, 60 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (4.5 sacks, 29 tackles)
This is another award that will not be a close vote, as Suh was everything the Lions hoped for and then some, giving the team a disruptive force in the middle of the line, and you could make the case that he is the best defensive tackle in the NFL right now (I'd say Ngata is the only one better than Suh, but still). Patriots CB Devin McCourty (7 INT), like Suh, will be going to the Pro Bowl, while both Thomas and Berry proved to be playmakers from the safety position for their respective teams. But I would be shocked beyond belief if Suh did not win this award.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
Of the four listed here, only one, John Fox, ended up being fired. Smith and Reid led their teams to division championships, so I'm pretty sure that they're safe, while it looks like the Jaguars will bring Jack Del Rio back for another season. As of this writing, there are six teams (Dallas, Minnesota, Denver, San Francisco, Carolina, and Cleveland) that fired their coaches, but there are whispers that Oakland's Tom Cable, Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis, and Tennessee's Jeff Fisher might also be on the chopping block.
Well, thanks for reading this rather long post, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
Friday, November 12, 2010
The Canon Review 2010 NFL Preview Mid-Season Review
With every team now playing at least half of their schedule, I figured that now is a good time to look back at how my predictions for the 2010 NFL season stack up so far.
AFC East:(*=Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New York Jets (6-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New England Patriots (6-2)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (0-8)
Well, it looks like I was wrong about the Jets, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson has made a huge impact on the Jets' offense, and QB Mark Sanchez has cut down on his turnovers and has had more good games than bad. Defensively, the Jets aren't quite as dominant as last year's squad, but they still are one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Jets look as if they will battle the Patriots for the AFC East squad right down to the wire. The Patriots, in spite of trading WR Randy Moss, are still one of the top teams in the league. But last week's loss to Cleveland raised some questions about the team's once stout defense, which ranks 29th in the league after week 9. Miami just benched their starting quarterback, Chad Henne, as their offense has struggled to put up points. But their defense, led by OLB Cameron Wake, has been solid, and the Dolphins have survived a brutal schedule to remain at .500 thus far. The Dolphins' schedule in the second half is a bit easier, but they'll have a tough time catching the Patriots and Jets unless they can beat both teams on the road. The Bills have been called the best 0-8 team in NFL history, which still means that this season has been a disappointment. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick developing into a legit starting-caliber quarterback, all hope is not lost in Buffalo, and look for the Bills to get at least one victory, possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Overall, I'm sticking with the Pats as division champs, but the Jets will make the playoffs instead of the Dolphins.
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 2. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (3-5)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6)
My Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the season, the Ravens, still look strong, but they seem to make a habit of letting inferior teams hang around before finally closing them out. With S Ed Reed recently rejoining the defense that has gotten great years out of DT Haloti Ngata and ILB Ray Lewis, and QB Joe Flacco having an excellent year thus far on offense, the Ravens may be the favorites in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers went 3-1 without QB Ben Roethlisberger, thanks to a stifling defense and the excellent play of RB Rashard Mendenhall. With Roethlisberger back in tow, another Super Bowl run is definitely in reach for Pittsburgh. The Browns, in spite of a muddled quarterback situation, have played tough all year and can claim victories over the Saints and Patriots. With QB Colt McCoy solidifying the quarterback situation and RB Peyton Hillis playing at an All-Pro level, the Browns are capable of winning on any given Sunday, and even though a playoff birth is unlikely, they are a team not to be taken lightly. Despite WR Terrell Owens playing like the T.O. of old, the Bengals are one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, as QB Carson Palmer has played much worse than his reputation and the team has made a staggering amount of mental errors. Overall, I still have the Ravens and Steelers making the playoffs, with the Browns and Bengals switching places.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Tennessee Titans (5-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Houston Texans (4-4)
4. Houston Texans 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
The Colts have suffered a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, but as long as they have QB Peyton Manning, it would be foolish to count the Colts out. The Titans are tied with the Colts and with the teams playing each other twice in the second half, the Titans will control their own destiny in the AFC South. If WR Randy Moss can provide the Titans with another deep threat and open up the field for RB Chris Johnson, then the Titans will be a dangerous team, provided that QB Vince Young stays healthy. The Jaguars are a roller-coaster team, looking dominant one week and absolutely dreadful the next. Despite an improved TE Mercedes Lewis and the continued excellence of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, look for the Jaguars to continue their inconsistent play. After beating the Colts in week one, the Texans looked as if they turned the corner, but their defense has been hurt by injuries and poor play, hampering a top-notch offense powered by RB Arian Foster. In the end, I can't go against the Colts, and I see no reason to change my preseason picks.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
2. Denver Broncos 2. Oakland Raiders (5-4)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. San Diego Chargers (4-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (2-6)
The Chargers have a high-powered offense led by QB Philip Rivers and a solid defense, but have been historically bad on special teams, allowing three return touchdowns (including two in one game) and five blocked punts, half of the entire league's total of blocked punts thus far. If the Chargers can get their special teams under control, they could once again return to the playoffs. The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise thus far, behind a top-notch running game powered by RBs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a defense powered by the pass rushing of OLB Tamba Hali and solid play from ILB Derrick Johnson and rookie S Eric Berry. With an easy schedule remaining, the Chiefs have a good chance to win the division. The Raiders have won five games for the first time since 2002, as RB Darren McFadden has become the player the Raiders hoped he would be after picking him in the 2008 Draft. With a solid defense backed up by CB Nmandi Asomugha, the Raiders aren't going away anytime soon. The Broncos have gotten solid play out of QB Kyle Orton and CB Champ Bailey, but have struggled because they can't run the ball (2.9 ypc) and can't stop the run either (allowing 4.6 ypc). Unless they find a solution to those problems, 2010 will be a lost season for the Broncos while the other three teams fight for the division crown. At the end of the day, look for the Chargers to once again reign as division champions despite a tough challenge.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. New York Giants (6-2)
2. New York Giants 2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (4-4)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (1-7)
Looks like I was dead wrong about the Cowboys, as their dismal play has gotten their coach Wade Phillips fired. Their offense has been bad, and their defense has been worse. The Giants have gotten some talk thrown their way as being the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and with an offense powered by WR Hakeem Nicks and RB Ahmad Bradshaw complimented by the pass rushing exploits of DE Osi Umenyiora and the defense, the Giants have the look of a top-notch team. The Eagles' season may not have gone exactly as planned, but QB Michael Vick has revitalized his career and made the Eagles a dangerous team in the process. The Redskins are fortunate that they are 4-4, as QB Donovan McNabb has not played well and the team has allowed more yards than they've gained in every game thus far this season. With an opportunistic defense led by CB DeAngelo Hall and the return game exploits of Brandon Banks, the 'Skins should continue to hang close with most teams, but unless McNabb gets back on track, then this looks like a 7-9 team at best. In the end, look for the Giants to win the division, while the Eagles take one of the two wild-card spots.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Chicago Bears (5-3)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Detroit Lions (2-6)
The Packers have suffered a lot of injuries, but thanks to a breakout season from OLB Clay Matthews and a solid performance from QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack remain the favorites in the NFC North. When the Bears keep the turnovers down and protect QB Jay Cutler, they're a capable football team. Otherwise, the Bears can look as bad as any team in the NFL. The Vikings are a colossal mess, with rumors of coach Brad Childress's job security, the saga of WR Randy Moss, and the scandal involving QB Brett Favre contributing to a lost season in Minnesota, despite the best efforts of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions are 2-6, but have lost 5 games by fewer than eight points, and have actually outscored their opposition by 15 points. But with QB Matthew Stafford likely out for the season, the Lions may struggle to reach 5 wins, even with super rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The Packers are probably the only above average team in this division, so they should coast to a division title.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints (6-3)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (1-7)
The Falcons just became the first NFL team to reach seven wins this season, in part because that they played 3 days before everyone else this week, but nevertheless. With WR Roddy White having an All-Pro season and QB Matt Ryan maturing into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, the Falcons are living up to expectations. The Saints have had some bumps in the road and injuries have hampered their running game, but QB Drew Brees and company have an easier second half schedule and should compete for the NFC title. The Panthers have a decent defense, but their offense is historically bad, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Panthers didn't win a game for the rest of the season. Despite coach Raheem Morris's claims, the Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. They are a lot better than I picked them to be though, as QB Josh Freeman may be the most promising young quarterback in the NFL. The Bucs are going in the right direction, but the Falcons and Saints are just too tough for them to overcome. Look for Atlanta and New Orleans to make the playoffs.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. St. Louis Rams (4-4)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
This division is just as bad as most pundits predicted, and it is likely that the division winner will finish with a .500 or worse record. The Rams have received a huge boost from rookie QB Sam Bradford, and most of their recent high draft picks such as DE Chris Long are starting to play up to their draft positions. At the very least, the Rams have finally emerged from the doldrums of the past few years. The Seahawks got off to a hot start, but have been blown out in the last two games by the Raiders and Giants. If QB Matt Hasselbeck can come back from injury, the Seahawks should be a factor in the NFC West. If the Cardinals could get decent play from the quarterback position, then they would probably lead the division. Unfortunately for Arizona, neither Derek Anderson or Max Hall have proven to be the answer, and Arizona will spend the rest of the season struggling to find a consistent offense. The 49ers still have ILB Patrick Willis, RB Frank Gore, and not a whole lot else. However, other than a game in Green Bay, the 49ers have a rather easy schedule down the stretch, so it wouldn't be surprising if they get on a run. Ultimately, I really don't know who's going to win. I guess I'll go with the Rams since they seem to be the team that's the hottest right now.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
If there's one thing for certain in the NFL this season, it's that there is still no clear-cut favorites to win the Super Bowl. You can make a case for the Jets, Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Giants, and perhaps the Eagles to be the top team in the NFL. Since my Championship Game picks are all among the favorites, I see no reason to change course now, although I do have my doubts about the Colts being able to beat the Steelers or Patriots with all of their injuries.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (192 completions in 303 attempts, 2,300 yards, 15 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 90.6 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (228-351, 2478, 16-4, 96.1)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (166-261, 1826, 14-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (212-338, 2265, 16-5, 91.9)
Current Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (215-329, 2944. 19-8, 102.9)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (10.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
In spite of losing three of his top four receivers and his top running back due to injury, Manning still is playing at his usual level, making a star out of previous unknown TE Jacob Tamme and having the Colts on the top of their game. Brady also has taken a subpar supporting cast, on paper at least, and led the Patriots to a 6-2 record. Rodgers and Ryan are definitely very valuable to their teams, but it will be hard for them to get votes over Manning and Brady. Rivers is third in the NFL in QB rating and leads the league in touchdowns and yards. If the Chargers could block on punts worth a damn, Rivers would be the frontrunner for MVP Awards. In his second year, Matthews has become the biggest defensive impact player in the NFL, and a 20 sack season is not out of the question for the pass-rushing specialist.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (180 attempts, 857 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 26 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (178, 721, 8)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (42 catches, 510 yards, 4 TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (157, 864, 9 , 32 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (70, 934, 7)
4. Peterson
Although the Vikings have disappointed, Peterson has continued to shine and has even improved, as his fumble problems of last year have largely disappeared. Rodgers has been solid, but Rivers has performed at a much higher level. Johnson may not run for 2,500 yards this year, as he predicted, but 1,500 seems like a safe bet. Foster has come out of nowhere to become the most productive back in the NFL this season, while White has taken his game to another level to become the most productive receiver in the league. As for Fitzgerald, the poor quarterback play in Arizona have hampered his numbers, although he still remains a top-notch player.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (8 sacks, 1 fumble recovery)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 INTs, 32 tackles)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (54 tackles, 1 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Current Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5 sacks, 32 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (8 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware may have eight sacks, but other than that his play has been spotty at best, and the rest of the Cowboys' misfortunes won't help his cause. Polamalu's return has solidified the Steelers defense, although he may not have the individual numbers to get POY consideration, Willis has once again been spectacular for a struggling 49ers team, while Revis has struggled to stay on the field due to injury. Matthews is the odds-on favorite right now, but it would be unwise to ignore Ngata, as he is the best defensive lineman in the game. Hali has sparked the Chiefs' Renaissance, while Talib has proven to be an impact player for the surprising Bucs.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (87 carries, 382 yards, 2 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (107, 345, 4, 41 catches, 356 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (171-292, 1674, 11-8, 75.9 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (38 catches, 435 yards, 4 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (36 catches, 559 yards, TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Matthews and Best were supposed to carry the rushing load for their respective teams, and each player has for the most part, although the Lions would probably like Best to improve on his 3.2 ypc. Bradford has been everything the Rams could have hoped for, while Bryant has been one of the few positives in a season full of negative for Dallas. Williams, a fourth-round pick, has emerged as Josh Freeman's favorite target in Tampa Bay, while Pouncey has stepped into a starting role for the Steelers and excelled for the most part.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (2 INTs, 33 tackles, 2 sacks)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (26 tackles, 0.5 sack)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Current Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (4 INTs, 30 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (3.5 sacks, 14 tackles)
Suh, the second pick in the draft, has quickly become one of the most dominant lineman in the NFL from day one. Berry and Thomas have been key components in the improvements of the Chiefs and Seahawks, respectively. McClain has been decent for the Raiders thus far, while Morgan has made very little impact for the Titans thus far. Misi has given the Dolphins a second pass rushing threat besides Cameron Wake. Ultimately, Suh is going to run away with this award, even if he struggles with extra points.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
With the Panthers at 1-7, it's only a matter of time before Fox gets fired. The Bears may be 5-3 and the Jaguars may be 4-4, but both Smith and Del Rio could ultimately lose their jobs if their respective teams falter in the second half. Reid's Eagles have played well thus far, so he should be safe. As for other coaches in danger, the Cowboys' Wade Phillips has already lost his job, while the Vikings' Brad Childress seems to have lost the respect of his team. Other coaches that could be in trouble include the 49ers' Mike Singletary, the Browns' Eric Mangini, the Bengals' Marvin Lewis, and the Texans' Gary Kubiak.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
AFC East:(*=Wild Card)
Predictions: Current Record:
1. New England Patriots 1. New York Jets (6-2)
2. Miami Dolphins* 2. New England Patriots (6-2)
3. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
4. Buffalo Bills 4. Buffalo Bills (0-8)
Well, it looks like I was wrong about the Jets, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson has made a huge impact on the Jets' offense, and QB Mark Sanchez has cut down on his turnovers and has had more good games than bad. Defensively, the Jets aren't quite as dominant as last year's squad, but they still are one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Jets look as if they will battle the Patriots for the AFC East squad right down to the wire. The Patriots, in spite of trading WR Randy Moss, are still one of the top teams in the league. But last week's loss to Cleveland raised some questions about the team's once stout defense, which ranks 29th in the league after week 9. Miami just benched their starting quarterback, Chad Henne, as their offense has struggled to put up points. But their defense, led by OLB Cameron Wake, has been solid, and the Dolphins have survived a brutal schedule to remain at .500 thus far. The Dolphins' schedule in the second half is a bit easier, but they'll have a tough time catching the Patriots and Jets unless they can beat both teams on the road. The Bills have been called the best 0-8 team in NFL history, which still means that this season has been a disappointment. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick developing into a legit starting-caliber quarterback, all hope is not lost in Buffalo, and look for the Bills to get at least one victory, possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Overall, I'm sticking with the Pats as division champs, but the Jets will make the playoffs instead of the Dolphins.
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 2. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns (3-5)
4. Cleveland Browns 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6)
My Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the season, the Ravens, still look strong, but they seem to make a habit of letting inferior teams hang around before finally closing them out. With S Ed Reed recently rejoining the defense that has gotten great years out of DT Haloti Ngata and ILB Ray Lewis, and QB Joe Flacco having an excellent year thus far on offense, the Ravens may be the favorites in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers went 3-1 without QB Ben Roethlisberger, thanks to a stifling defense and the excellent play of RB Rashard Mendenhall. With Roethlisberger back in tow, another Super Bowl run is definitely in reach for Pittsburgh. The Browns, in spite of a muddled quarterback situation, have played tough all year and can claim victories over the Saints and Patriots. With QB Colt McCoy solidifying the quarterback situation and RB Peyton Hillis playing at an All-Pro level, the Browns are capable of winning on any given Sunday, and even though a playoff birth is unlikely, they are a team not to be taken lightly. Despite WR Terrell Owens playing like the T.O. of old, the Bengals are one of the NFL's most disappointing teams, as QB Carson Palmer has played much worse than his reputation and the team has made a staggering amount of mental errors. Overall, I still have the Ravens and Steelers making the playoffs, with the Browns and Bengals switching places.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts 1. Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
2. Tennessee Titans 2. Tennessee Titans (5-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Houston Texans (4-4)
4. Houston Texans 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
The Colts have suffered a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, but as long as they have QB Peyton Manning, it would be foolish to count the Colts out. The Titans are tied with the Colts and with the teams playing each other twice in the second half, the Titans will control their own destiny in the AFC South. If WR Randy Moss can provide the Titans with another deep threat and open up the field for RB Chris Johnson, then the Titans will be a dangerous team, provided that QB Vince Young stays healthy. The Jaguars are a roller-coaster team, looking dominant one week and absolutely dreadful the next. Despite an improved TE Mercedes Lewis and the continued excellence of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, look for the Jaguars to continue their inconsistent play. After beating the Colts in week one, the Texans looked as if they turned the corner, but their defense has been hurt by injuries and poor play, hampering a top-notch offense powered by RB Arian Foster. In the end, I can't go against the Colts, and I see no reason to change my preseason picks.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers 1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
2. Denver Broncos 2. Oakland Raiders (5-4)
3. Oakland Raiders 3. San Diego Chargers (4-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs 4. Denver Broncos (2-6)
The Chargers have a high-powered offense led by QB Philip Rivers and a solid defense, but have been historically bad on special teams, allowing three return touchdowns (including two in one game) and five blocked punts, half of the entire league's total of blocked punts thus far. If the Chargers can get their special teams under control, they could once again return to the playoffs. The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise thus far, behind a top-notch running game powered by RBs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a defense powered by the pass rushing of OLB Tamba Hali and solid play from ILB Derrick Johnson and rookie S Eric Berry. With an easy schedule remaining, the Chiefs have a good chance to win the division. The Raiders have won five games for the first time since 2002, as RB Darren McFadden has become the player the Raiders hoped he would be after picking him in the 2008 Draft. With a solid defense backed up by CB Nmandi Asomugha, the Raiders aren't going away anytime soon. The Broncos have gotten solid play out of QB Kyle Orton and CB Champ Bailey, but have struggled because they can't run the ball (2.9 ypc) and can't stop the run either (allowing 4.6 ypc). Unless they find a solution to those problems, 2010 will be a lost season for the Broncos while the other three teams fight for the division crown. At the end of the day, look for the Chargers to once again reign as division champions despite a tough challenge.
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys 1. New York Giants (6-2)
2. New York Giants 2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
3. Washington Redskins 3. Washington Redskins (4-4)
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. Dallas Cowboys (1-7)
Looks like I was dead wrong about the Cowboys, as their dismal play has gotten their coach Wade Phillips fired. Their offense has been bad, and their defense has been worse. The Giants have gotten some talk thrown their way as being the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and with an offense powered by WR Hakeem Nicks and RB Ahmad Bradshaw complimented by the pass rushing exploits of DE Osi Umenyiora and the defense, the Giants have the look of a top-notch team. The Eagles' season may not have gone exactly as planned, but QB Michael Vick has revitalized his career and made the Eagles a dangerous team in the process. The Redskins are fortunate that they are 4-4, as QB Donovan McNabb has not played well and the team has allowed more yards than they've gained in every game thus far this season. With an opportunistic defense led by CB DeAngelo Hall and the return game exploits of Brandon Banks, the 'Skins should continue to hang close with most teams, but unless McNabb gets back on track, then this looks like a 7-9 team at best. In the end, look for the Giants to win the division, while the Eagles take one of the two wild-card spots.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers 1. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings* 2. Chicago Bears (5-3)
3. Chicago Bears 3. Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
4. Detroit Lions 4. Detroit Lions (2-6)
The Packers have suffered a lot of injuries, but thanks to a breakout season from OLB Clay Matthews and a solid performance from QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack remain the favorites in the NFC North. When the Bears keep the turnovers down and protect QB Jay Cutler, they're a capable football team. Otherwise, the Bears can look as bad as any team in the NFL. The Vikings are a colossal mess, with rumors of coach Brad Childress's job security, the saga of WR Randy Moss, and the scandal involving QB Brett Favre contributing to a lost season in Minnesota, despite the best efforts of RB Adrian Peterson. The Lions are 2-6, but have lost 5 games by fewer than eight points, and have actually outscored their opposition by 15 points. But with QB Matthew Stafford likely out for the season, the Lions may struggle to reach 5 wins, even with super rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The Packers are probably the only above average team in this division, so they should coast to a division title.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 1. Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
2. New Orleans Saints* 2. New Orleans Saints (6-3)
3. Carolina Panthers 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4. Carolina Panthers (1-7)
The Falcons just became the first NFL team to reach seven wins this season, in part because that they played 3 days before everyone else this week, but nevertheless. With WR Roddy White having an All-Pro season and QB Matt Ryan maturing into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, the Falcons are living up to expectations. The Saints have had some bumps in the road and injuries have hampered their running game, but QB Drew Brees and company have an easier second half schedule and should compete for the NFC title. The Panthers have a decent defense, but their offense is historically bad, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Panthers didn't win a game for the rest of the season. Despite coach Raheem Morris's claims, the Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. They are a lot better than I picked them to be though, as QB Josh Freeman may be the most promising young quarterback in the NFL. The Bucs are going in the right direction, but the Falcons and Saints are just too tough for them to overcome. Look for Atlanta and New Orleans to make the playoffs.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals 1. St. Louis Rams (4-4)
2. San Francisco 49ers 2. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
3. St. Louis Rams 3. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks 4. San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
This division is just as bad as most pundits predicted, and it is likely that the division winner will finish with a .500 or worse record. The Rams have received a huge boost from rookie QB Sam Bradford, and most of their recent high draft picks such as DE Chris Long are starting to play up to their draft positions. At the very least, the Rams have finally emerged from the doldrums of the past few years. The Seahawks got off to a hot start, but have been blown out in the last two games by the Raiders and Giants. If QB Matt Hasselbeck can come back from injury, the Seahawks should be a factor in the NFC West. If the Cardinals could get decent play from the quarterback position, then they would probably lead the division. Unfortunately for Arizona, neither Derek Anderson or Max Hall have proven to be the answer, and Arizona will spend the rest of the season struggling to find a consistent offense. The 49ers still have ILB Patrick Willis, RB Frank Gore, and not a whole lot else. However, other than a game in Green Bay, the 49ers have a rather easy schedule down the stretch, so it wouldn't be surprising if they get on a run. Ultimately, I really don't know who's going to win. I guess I'll go with the Rams since they seem to be the team that's the hottest right now.
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers
If there's one thing for certain in the NFL this season, it's that there is still no clear-cut favorites to win the Super Bowl. You can make a case for the Jets, Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Giants, and perhaps the Eagles to be the top team in the NFL. Since my Championship Game picks are all among the favorites, I see no reason to change course now, although I do have my doubts about the Colts being able to beat the Steelers or Patriots with all of their injuries.
NFL MVP:
Preseason Picks:
1. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (192 completions in 303 attempts, 2,300 yards, 15 TD passes, 9 interceptions, 90.6 QB Rating)
2. QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (228-351, 2478, 16-4, 96.1)
3. QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (166-261, 1826, 14-4)
Dark Horse: QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (212-338, 2265, 16-5, 91.9)
Current Favorites:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (215-329, 2944. 19-8, 102.9)
4. OLB Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers (10.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD)
In spite of losing three of his top four receivers and his top running back due to injury, Manning still is playing at his usual level, making a star out of previous unknown TE Jacob Tamme and having the Colts on the top of their game. Brady also has taken a subpar supporting cast, on paper at least, and led the Patriots to a 6-2 record. Rodgers and Ryan are definitely very valuable to their teams, but it will be hard for them to get votes over Manning and Brady. Rivers is third in the NFL in QB rating and leads the league in touchdowns and yards. If the Chargers could block on punts worth a damn, Rivers would be the frontrunner for MVP Awards. In his second year, Matthews has become the biggest defensive impact player in the NFL, and a 20 sack season is not out of the question for the pass-rushing specialist.
NFL Most Outstanding Offensive Player:
Preseason Picks:
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (180 attempts, 857 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 26 catches)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (178, 721, 8)
Dark Horse: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (42 catches, 510 yards, 4 TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Rivers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (157, 864, 9 , 32 catches)
3. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (70, 934, 7)
4. Peterson
Although the Vikings have disappointed, Peterson has continued to shine and has even improved, as his fumble problems of last year have largely disappeared. Rodgers has been solid, but Rivers has performed at a much higher level. Johnson may not run for 2,500 yards this year, as he predicted, but 1,500 seems like a safe bet. Foster has come out of nowhere to become the most productive back in the NFL this season, while White has taken his game to another level to become the most productive receiver in the league. As for Fitzgerald, the poor quarterback play in Arizona have hampered his numbers, although he still remains a top-notch player.
NFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player:
Preseason Favorites:
1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys (8 sacks, 1 fumble recovery)
2.Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 INTs, 32 tackles)
3. Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (54 tackles, 1 sack)
Dark Horse: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets (2 fumble recoveries)
Current Favorites:
1. Matthews
2. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens (5 sacks, 32 tackles)
3. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (8 sacks)
4. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 Ints, 1TDs)
Ware may have eight sacks, but other than that his play has been spotty at best, and the rest of the Cowboys' misfortunes won't help his cause. Polamalu's return has solidified the Steelers defense, although he may not have the individual numbers to get POY consideration, Willis has once again been spectacular for a struggling 49ers team, while Revis has struggled to stay on the field due to injury. Matthews is the odds-on favorite right now, but it would be unwise to ignore Ngata, as he is the best defensive lineman in the game. Hali has sparked the Chiefs' Renaissance, while Talib has proven to be an impact player for the surprising Bucs.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers (87 carries, 382 yards, 2 touchdowns)
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (107, 345, 4, 41 catches, 356 yards)
3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (171-292, 1674, 11-8, 75.9 rating)
Dark Horse: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (38 catches, 435 yards, 4 TDs, 2 punt return TDs)
Current Favorites:
1. Bradford
2. Bryant
3. Mike Williams, WR, (36 catches, 559 yards, TDs)
4. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Matthews and Best were supposed to carry the rushing load for their respective teams, and each player has for the most part, although the Lions would probably like Best to improve on his 3.2 ypc. Bradford has been everything the Rams could have hoped for, while Bryant has been one of the few positives in a season full of negative for Dallas. Williams, a fourth-round pick, has emerged as Josh Freeman's favorite target in Tampa Bay, while Pouncey has stepped into a starting role for the Steelers and excelled for the most part.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Preseason Picks:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles)
2. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs (2 INTs, 33 tackles, 2 sacks)
3. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland Raiders (26 tackles, 0.5 sack)
Dark Horse: Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans (1.5 sacks)
Current Favorites:
1. Suh
2. Berry
3. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (4 INTs, 30 tackles)
4. Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins (3.5 sacks, 14 tackles)
Suh, the second pick in the draft, has quickly become one of the most dominant lineman in the NFL from day one. Berry and Thomas have been key components in the improvements of the Chiefs and Seahawks, respectively. McClain has been decent for the Raiders thus far, while Morgan has made very little impact for the Titans thus far. Misi has given the Dolphins a second pass rushing threat besides Cameron Wake. Ultimately, Suh is going to run away with this award, even if he struggles with extra points.
Coach Most Likely to be Fired:
1. John Fox, Panthers
2. Lovie Smith, Bears
3. Jack Del Rio, Jaguars
Dark Horse: Andy Reid, Eagles
With the Panthers at 1-7, it's only a matter of time before Fox gets fired. The Bears may be 5-3 and the Jaguars may be 4-4, but both Smith and Del Rio could ultimately lose their jobs if their respective teams falter in the second half. Reid's Eagles have played well thus far, so he should be safe. As for other coaches in danger, the Cowboys' Wade Phillips has already lost his job, while the Vikings' Brad Childress seems to have lost the respect of his team. Other coaches that could be in trouble include the 49ers' Mike Singletary, the Browns' Eric Mangini, the Bengals' Marvin Lewis, and the Texans' Gary Kubiak.
Well, thanks for reading, and if you have any comments about this or previous posts, or ideas for future reviews or posts, than share them either by leaving a comment or by sending me an e-mail at KtheC2001@gmail.com.
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